Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vivendi SE (VIV.PA)

8.28 €

-0.10 (-1.15%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -1,398.45 | 8.28 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	13,932	15,898	16,090	9,572	9,595	8,996.51	8,435.34	7,909.18	7,415.84	6,953.28
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	1,021	2,300	2,928	25,794	-246	5,522.11	5,177.66	4,854.70	4,551.89	4,267.96
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	568	1,556	2,110	24,985	-843	5,023.90	4,710.53	4,416.71	4,141.21	3,882.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	453	744	818	809	597	498.21	467.13	437.99	410.67	385.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	4,867	2,377	1,108	4,458	2,549	2,337.49	2,191.69	2,054.98	1,926.80	1,806.61
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	3,643	3,774	3,422	3,550	2,596.47	2,434.51	2,282.66	2,140.27	2,006.77	1,881.60
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	206	277	366	256	240	192.01	180.03	168.80	158.28	148.40
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	4,938	5,057	4,498	5,104	5,083	3,625.69	3,399.54	3,187.49	2,988.67	2,802.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-351	-413	-438	-460	-385	-299.72	-281.02	-263.50	-247.06	-231.65
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 8.28
Beta	0.858
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,034.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-84.31
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.65%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.741
Total Debt	4,133
Total Equity	8,563.18
Total Capital	12,696.18
Debt Weighting	32.55
Equity Weighting	67.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	13,932	15,898	16,090	9,572	9,595	8,996.51	8,435.34	7,909.18	7,415.84	6,953.28
EBITDA	1,021	2,300	2,928	25,794	-246	5,522.11	5,177.66	4,854.70	4,551.89	4,267.96
EBIT	568	1,556	2,110	24,985	-843	5,023.90	4,710.53	4,416.71	4,141.21	3,882.90
Tax Rate	75.29%	-7.18%	34.01%	7,816.25%	-84.31%	1,566.81%	1,566.81%	1,566.81%	1,566.81%	1,566.81%
EBIAT	140.34	1,667.67	1,392.48	-1,927,905.07	-1,553.70	-73,691.21	-69,094.68	-64,784.85	-60,743.86	-56,954.92
Depreciation	453	744	818	809	597	498.21	467.13	437.99	410.67	385.06
Accounts Receivable	-	-131	352	-128	953.53	161.96	151.85	142.38	133.50	125.17
Inventories	-	-71	-89	110	16	47.99	11.98	11.23	10.53	9.87
Accounts Payable	-	119	-559	606	-21	-1,457.31	-226.15	-212.05	-198.82	-186.42
Capital Expenditure	-351	-413	-438	-460	-385	-299.72	-281.02	-263.50	-247.06	-231.65
UFCF	242.34	1,915.67	1,476.48	-1,926,968.07	-393.17	-74,740.09	-68,970.90	-64,668.79	-60,635.04	-56,852.89
WACC
PV UFCF						-70,669.53	-61,662.76	-54,667.65	-48,466.08	-42,968.02
SUM PV UFCF										-278,434.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.76
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-57,989.94
Terminal Value	-1,542,285.77
Present Value of Terminal Value	-1,165,621.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-1,444,055.78
Net Debt	2,225
Equity Value	-1,446,280.78
Shares Outstanding	1,034.20
Equity Value Per Share	-1,398.45