Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Valeura Energy Inc. (VLE.TO)
$1.85
-0.01 (-0.54%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 12.73 | 10.44 | 10.88 | 8.85 | 3.28 | 2.50 | 1.90 | 1.45 | 1.10 | 0.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -1.41 | 0.81 | -4.35 | -20.16 | -63.95 | -11.09 | -8.45 | -6.43 | -4.90 | -3.73 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -8.59 | -4.55 | -10.21 | -24.93 | -65.71 | -12.44 | -9.47 | -7.21 | -5.49 | -4.18 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.18 | 5.36 | 5.86 | 4.77 | 1.77 | 1.35 | 1.02 | 0.78 | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 8.83 | 45.80 | 36.11 | 30.14 | 40.83 | 12.11 | 9.22 | 7.02 | 5.35 | 4.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 3.02 | 7.28 | 7.25 | 0.25 | 0.48 | 0.89 | 0.68 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 10.63 | 10.56 | 10.05 | 8.17 | 3.03 | 2.31 | 1.76 | 1.34 | 1.02 | 0.78 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4.67 | -5.89 | -3.36 | -3.13 | -0.26 | -0.84 | -0.64 | -0.48 | -0.37 | -0.28 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.85 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.958 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 86.56 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.43 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.160 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 160.14 |
| Total Capital | 160.14 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 12.73 | 10.44 | 10.88 | 8.85 | 3.28 | 2.50 | 1.90 | 1.45 | 1.10 | 0.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -1.41 | 0.81 | -4.35 | -20.16 | -63.95 | -11.09 | -8.45 | -6.43 | -4.90 | -3.73 |
| EBIT | -8.59 | -4.55 | -10.21 | -24.93 | -65.71 | -12.44 | -9.47 | -7.21 | -5.49 | -4.18 |
| Tax Rate | 22.39% | -14.80% | -10.79% | 3.11% | -0.43% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% | -0.10% |
| EBIAT | -6.67 | -5.23 | -11.31 | -24.15 | -66 | -12.45 | -9.48 | -7.22 | -5.50 | -4.19 |
| Depreciation | 7.18 | 5.36 | 5.86 | 4.77 | 1.77 | 1.35 | 1.02 | 0.78 | 0.59 | 0.45 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -4.26 | 0.04 | 7 | -0.23 | -0.41 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| Inventories | - | 0.06 | -0.07 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.07 | -0.51 | -1.87 | -5.15 | -0.72 | -0.55 | -0.42 | -0.32 | -0.24 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4.67 | -5.89 | -3.35 | -3.13 | -0.26 | -0.84 | -0.64 | -0.48 | -0.37 | -0.28 |
| UFCF | -4.16 | -10.03 | -9.35 | -17.32 | -69.77 | -13.06 | -9.42 | -7.18 | -5.46 | -4.16 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -12.07 | -8.05 | -5.67 | -3.99 | -2.81 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -32.60 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.16 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -4.24 |
| Terminal Value | -68.90 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -46.54 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -79.14 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -40.83 |
| Equity Value | -38.32 |
| Shares Outstanding | 86.56 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -0.44 |