Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Vishay Precision Group, Inc. (VPG)
$42.73
-0.65 (-1.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 254.35 | 299.79 | 283.96 | 269.81 | 317.92 | 338.13 | 359.63 | 382.50 | 406.82 | 432.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 32.98 | 46.36 | 39.63 | 32.17 | 41.92 | 45.65 | 48.55 | 51.63 | 54.92 | 58.41 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 22.36 | 35.73 | 27.84 | 19.66 | 26.92 | 31.29 | 33.28 | 35.39 | 37.64 | 40.04 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 10.63 | 10.63 | 11.79 | 12.51 | 15 | 14.36 | 15.27 | 16.24 | 17.27 | 18.37 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 74.29 | 90.16 | 86.91 | 98.44 | 84.33 | 103.40 | 109.98 | 116.97 | 124.40 | 132.31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 46.79 | 53.16 | 43.20 | 45.34 | 58.26 | 58.48 | 62.19 | 66.15 | 70.36 | 74.83 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 59.94 | 62.24 | 66.89 | 62.35 | 76.43 | 77.79 | 82.74 | 88 | 93.59 | 99.54 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 13.68 | 11.46 | 8.87 | 10.49 | 14.88 | 14.13 | 15.03 | 15.98 | 17 | 18.08 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -6.96 | -14.52 | -11.20 | -22.95 | -17.06 | -17.17 | -18.27 | -19.43 | -20.66 | -21.98 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 42.73 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.284 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 13.62 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.96 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.06% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.578 |
| Total Debt | 90.46 |
| Total Equity | 582.11 |
| Total Capital | 672.57 |
| Debt Weighting | 13.45 |
| Equity Weighting | 86.55 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 254.35 | 299.79 | 283.96 | 269.81 | 317.92 | 338.13 | 359.63 | 382.50 | 406.82 | 432.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 32.98 | 46.36 | 39.63 | 32.17 | 41.92 | 45.65 | 48.55 | 51.63 | 54.92 | 58.41 |
| EBIT | 22.36 | 35.73 | 27.84 | 19.66 | 26.92 | 31.29 | 33.28 | 35.39 | 37.64 | 40.04 |
| Tax Rate | 30.24% | 30.43% | 16.08% | 41.08% | 21.96% | 27.96% | 27.96% | 27.96% | 27.96% | 27.96% |
| EBIAT | 15.60 | 24.86 | 23.36 | 11.58 | 21.01 | 22.54 | 23.97 | 25.50 | 27.12 | 28.84 |
| Depreciation | 10.63 | 10.63 | 11.79 | 12.51 | 15 | 14.36 | 15.27 | 16.24 | 17.27 | 18.37 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -6.37 | 9.96 | -2.14 | -12.93 | -0.21 | -3.72 | -3.95 | -4.21 | -4.47 |
| Inventories | - | -2.31 | -4.65 | 4.55 | -14.08 | -1.36 | -4.95 | -5.26 | -5.60 | -5.95 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.22 | -2.59 | 1.62 | 4.39 | -0.75 | 0.90 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 1.08 |
| Capital Expenditure | -6.96 | -14.52 | -11.20 | -22.95 | -17.06 | -17.17 | -18.27 | -19.43 | -20.66 | -21.98 |
| UFCF | 19.26 | 10.08 | 26.67 | 5.17 | -3.67 | 17.40 | 13.21 | 14.05 | 14.95 | 15.90 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 16.05 | 11.24 | 11.02 | 10.81 | 10.61 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 59.72 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 16.21 |
| Terminal Value | 252.15 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 168.23 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 227.96 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 6.13 |
| Equity Value | 221.83 |
| Shares Outstanding | 13.62 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 16.28 |