Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Koninklijke Vopak N.V. (VPK.AS)

31.88 €

+0.29 (+0.92%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 82.88 | 31.88 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,254.50	1,252.60	1,190	1,227.90	1,367	1,399	1,431.75	1,465.27	1,499.57	1,534.68
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	661.90	1,010	755.40	712.20	392.70	793.52	812.10	831.11	850.56	870.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	388.80	719.30	455.90	380.40	52.80	452.07	462.66	473.49	484.57	495.92
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	273.10	290.70	299.50	331.80	339.90	341.45	349.44	357.62	365.99	374.56
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	77.50	94.50	68.30	73.40	33.80	78.10	79.93	81.80	83.71	85.67
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	36.70	41	51.40	70.10	77.10	61.18	62.62	64.08	65.58	67.12
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-524.70	-619.20	-650.80	-518.50	-386.10	-605.54	-619.72	-634.22	-649.07	-664.27
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 31.88
Beta	0.567
Diluted Shares Outstanding	125.55
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-360.11
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.241
Total Debt	3,084.60
Total Equity	4,002.37
Total Capital	7,086.97
Debt Weighting	43.52
Equity Weighting	56.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,254.50	1,252.60	1,190	1,227.90	1,367	1,399	1,431.75	1,465.27	1,499.57	1,534.68
EBITDA	661.90	1,010	755.40	712.20	392.70	793.52	812.10	831.11	850.56	870.48
EBIT	388.80	719.30	455.90	380.40	52.80	452.07	462.66	473.49	484.57	495.92
Tax Rate	27.10%	13.76%	25.45%	29.35%	-360.11%	-52.89%	-52.89%	-52.89%	-52.89%	-52.89%
EBIAT	283.44	620.33	339.89	268.74	242.94	691.18	707.36	723.92	740.86	758.21
Depreciation	273.10	290.70	299.50	331.80	339.90	341.45	349.44	357.62	365.99	374.56
Accounts Receivable	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	4.30	10.40	18.70	7	-15.92	1.43	1.47	1.50	1.54
Capital Expenditure	-524.70	-619.20	-650.80	-518.50	-386.10	-605.54	-619.72	-634.22	-649.07	-664.27
UFCF	31.84	296.13	-1.01	100.74	203.74	411.17	438.51	448.78	459.29	470.04
WACC
PV UFCF						390.77	396.08	385.25	374.70	364.45
SUM PV UFCF										1,911.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.22
Free cash flow (t + 1)	479.44
Terminal Value	14,889.38
Present Value of Terminal Value	11,544.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	13,456.02
Net Debt	3,050.80
Equity Value	10,405.22
Shares Outstanding	125.55
Equity Value Per Share	82.88