Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA)

$2.95

+0.04 (+1.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 23.34 | 2.95 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 454.65416.10495.21468.27540.45568.16597.29627.92660.11693.96
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 34.9644.7745.1753.4757.4456.3859.2762.3165.5168.86
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 15.3928.2321.369.8524.5324.0125.2426.5327.8929.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 19.5716.5423.8143.6232.9132.3734.0335.7837.6139.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 122.90132.8758.8965.4788.44115120.90127.09133.61140.46
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 19.9616.4125.3334.9230.0730.0831.6233.2434.9536.74
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 87.8491.58123.61141.42144.88140.11147.29154.84162.78171.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 13.5014.6020.2427.0930.4924.9926.2727.6229.0330.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -11.82-8.15-13.32-5.74-5.49-10.78-11.34-11.92-12.53-13.17
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.95
Beta 1.786
Diluted Shares Outstanding 33.91
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.395
Total Debt 99.56
Total Equity 100.05
Total Capital 199.61
Debt Weighting 49.88
Equity Weighting 50.12
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 454.65416.10495.21468.27540.45568.16597.29627.92660.11693.96
EBITDA 34.9644.7745.1753.4757.4456.3859.2762.3165.5168.86
EBIT 15.3928.2321.369.8524.5324.0125.2426.5327.8929.32
Tax Rate 54.42%26.46%21.95%26.82%33.06%32.54%32.54%32.54%32.54%32.54%
EBIAT 7.0220.7616.677.2116.4216.1917.0217.9018.8219.78
Depreciation 19.5716.5423.8143.6232.9132.3734.0335.7837.6139.54
Accounts Receivable -3.54-8.92-9.584.84-0.01-1.54-1.62-1.70-1.79
Inventories --3.74-32.03-17.81-3.464.78-7.18-7.55-7.94-8.35
Accounts Payable -1.095.646.863.40-5.501.281.351.421.49
Capital Expenditure -11.82-8.15-13.32-5.74-5.49-10.78-11.34-11.92-12.53-13.17
UFCF 14.7630.04-8.1424.5548.6237.0532.2833.9335.6737.50
WACC
PV UFCF 34.8628.5728.2527.9427.63
SUM PV UFCF 147.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) 38.25
Terminal Value 889.60
Present Value of Terminal Value 655.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 802.68
Net Debt 11.12
Equity Value 791.56
Shares Outstanding 33.91
Equity Value Per Share 23.34