Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Vranken-Pommery Monopole Société An... (VRAP.PA)

16.75 €

+0.05 (+0.30%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -212.61 | 16.75 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	300.42	274.63	244.01	301.25	334.46	346.79	359.58	372.84	386.59	400.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	35.53	35.95	33.88	45.39	48.66	47.46	49.21	51.02	52.90	54.85
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	25.05	21.46	17.83	29.32	34.12	30.10	31.21	32.36	33.55	34.79
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	10.48	14.49	16.05	16.07	14.54	17.36	18	18.66	19.35	20.06
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	22.79	6.54	17.47	15.25	8.52	17.16	17.79	18.45	19.13	19.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	86.57	90.25	99.67	75.07	105.46	110.26	114.33	118.55	122.92	127.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	696.48	685.80	672.46	645.39	645.77	807.66	837.44	868.32	900.34	933.54
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	129.18	94.20	107.11	87.38	122.18	129.52	134.29	139.25	144.38	149.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-13.49	-16.89	-14.25	-14.29	-12.24	-17.26	-17.90	-18.56	-19.24	-19.95
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 16.75
Beta	0.571
Diluted Shares Outstanding	8.88
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	34.98
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.78%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.237
Total Debt	657.03
Total Equity	148.73
Total Capital	805.76
Debt Weighting	81.54
Equity Weighting	18.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	300.42	274.63	244.01	301.25	334.46	346.79	359.58	372.84	386.59	400.84
EBITDA	35.53	35.95	33.88	45.39	48.66	47.46	49.21	51.02	52.90	54.85
EBIT	25.05	21.46	17.83	29.32	34.12	30.10	31.21	32.36	33.55	34.79
Tax Rate	7.69%	76.84%	27.98%	25.11%	34.98%	34.52%	34.52%	34.52%	34.52%	34.52%
EBIAT	23.12	4.97	12.84	21.96	22.19	19.71	20.44	21.19	21.97	22.78
Depreciation	10.48	14.49	16.05	16.07	14.54	17.36	18	18.66	19.35	20.06
Accounts Receivable	-	-3.68	-9.42	24.59	-30.39	-4.80	-4.07	-4.22	-4.37	-4.53
Inventories	-	10.68	13.34	27.07	-0.38	-161.88	-29.78	-30.88	-32.02	-33.20
Accounts Payable	-	-34.98	12.91	-19.73	34.79	7.34	4.78	4.95	5.13	5.32
Capital Expenditure	-13.49	-16.89	-14.25	-14.29	-12.24	-17.26	-17.90	-18.56	-19.24	-19.95
UFCF	20.11	-25.41	31.47	55.68	28.50	-139.54	-8.54	-8.85	-9.18	-9.52
WACC
PV UFCF						-135.75	-8.08	-8.15	-8.22	-8.29
SUM PV UFCF										-168.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	2.79
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-9.71
Terminal Value	-1,228.83
Present Value of Terminal Value	-1,070.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-1,239.38
Net Debt	648.50
Equity Value	-1,887.88
Shares Outstanding	8.88
Equity Value Per Share	-212.61