Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Vranken-Pommery Monopole Société An... (VRAP.PA)
16.75 €
+0.05 (+0.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 300.42 | 274.63 | 244.01 | 301.25 | 334.46 | 346.79 | 359.58 | 372.84 | 386.59 | 400.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 35.53 | 35.95 | 33.88 | 45.39 | 48.66 | 47.46 | 49.21 | 51.02 | 52.90 | 54.85 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 25.05 | 21.46 | 17.83 | 29.32 | 34.12 | 30.10 | 31.21 | 32.36 | 33.55 | 34.79 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 10.48 | 14.49 | 16.05 | 16.07 | 14.54 | 17.36 | 18 | 18.66 | 19.35 | 20.06 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 22.79 | 6.54 | 17.47 | 15.25 | 8.52 | 17.16 | 17.79 | 18.45 | 19.13 | 19.83 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 86.57 | 90.25 | 99.67 | 75.07 | 105.46 | 110.26 | 114.33 | 118.55 | 122.92 | 127.45 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 696.48 | 685.80 | 672.46 | 645.39 | 645.77 | 807.66 | 837.44 | 868.32 | 900.34 | 933.54 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 129.18 | 94.20 | 107.11 | 87.38 | 122.18 | 129.52 | 134.29 | 139.25 | 144.38 | 149.70 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -13.49 | -16.89 | -14.25 | -14.29 | -12.24 | -17.26 | -17.90 | -18.56 | -19.24 | -19.95 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 16.75 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.571 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8.88 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 34.98 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.78% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.237 |
Total Debt | 657.03 |
Total Equity | 148.73 |
Total Capital | 805.76 |
Debt Weighting | 81.54 |
Equity Weighting | 18.46 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 300.42 | 274.63 | 244.01 | 301.25 | 334.46 | 346.79 | 359.58 | 372.84 | 386.59 | 400.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 35.53 | 35.95 | 33.88 | 45.39 | 48.66 | 47.46 | 49.21 | 51.02 | 52.90 | 54.85 |
EBIT | 25.05 | 21.46 | 17.83 | 29.32 | 34.12 | 30.10 | 31.21 | 32.36 | 33.55 | 34.79 |
Tax Rate | 7.69% | 76.84% | 27.98% | 25.11% | 34.98% | 34.52% | 34.52% | 34.52% | 34.52% | 34.52% |
EBIAT | 23.12 | 4.97 | 12.84 | 21.96 | 22.19 | 19.71 | 20.44 | 21.19 | 21.97 | 22.78 |
Depreciation | 10.48 | 14.49 | 16.05 | 16.07 | 14.54 | 17.36 | 18 | 18.66 | 19.35 | 20.06 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -3.68 | -9.42 | 24.59 | -30.39 | -4.80 | -4.07 | -4.22 | -4.37 | -4.53 |
Inventories | - | 10.68 | 13.34 | 27.07 | -0.38 | -161.88 | -29.78 | -30.88 | -32.02 | -33.20 |
Accounts Payable | - | -34.98 | 12.91 | -19.73 | 34.79 | 7.34 | 4.78 | 4.95 | 5.13 | 5.32 |
Capital Expenditure | -13.49 | -16.89 | -14.25 | -14.29 | -12.24 | -17.26 | -17.90 | -18.56 | -19.24 | -19.95 |
UFCF | 20.11 | -25.41 | 31.47 | 55.68 | 28.50 | -139.54 | -8.54 | -8.85 | -9.18 | -9.52 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -135.75 | -8.08 | -8.15 | -8.22 | -8.29 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -168.50 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 2.79 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -9.71 |
Terminal Value | -1,228.83 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,070.87 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -1,239.38 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 648.50 |
Equity Value | -1,887.88 |
Shares Outstanding | 8.88 |
Equity Value Per Share | -212.61 |