Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

VSE Corporation (VSEC)

$56.81

+0.95 (+1.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -85.82 | 56.81 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 760.11697.22752.63661.66750.85752.85754.86756.87758.89760.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 80.2179.4587.1838.0647.1268.6068.7868.9769.1569.33
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 54.3354.2360.2613.9221.5242.0142.1242.2442.3542.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 25.8825.2226.9324.1325.6026.5926.6626.7326.8026.87
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 0.620.160.730.380.520.500.500.500.500.50
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 98.34101.26116.9180.55111.29105.38105.66105.95106.23106.51
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 132.59166.39218.63253.42322.70228.32228.93229.54230.15230.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 66.0257.4168.1072.68115.0678.7178.9279.1379.3479.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.74-3.12-9.63-4.43-10.52-6.46-6.48-6.49-6.51-6.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 56.81
Beta 1.468
Diluted Shares Outstanding 12.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.71
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.20%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.463
Total Debt 317.73
Total Equity 717.67
Total Capital 1,035.40
Debt Weighting 30.69
Equity Weighting 69.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 760.11697.22752.63661.66750.85752.85754.86756.87758.89760.91
EBITDA 80.2179.4587.1838.0647.1268.6068.7868.9769.1569.33
EBIT 54.3354.2360.2613.9221.5242.0142.1242.2442.3542.46
Tax Rate 13.28%22.47%20.25%1,311.01%15.71%276.55%276.55%276.55%276.55%276.55%
EBIAT 47.1142.0448.05-168.6118.14-74.17-74.37-74.57-74.76-74.96
Depreciation 25.8825.2226.9324.1325.6026.5926.6626.7326.8026.87
Accounts Receivable --2.92-15.6536.36-30.745.91-0.28-0.28-0.28-0.28
Inventories --33.80-52.23-34.80-69.2894.38-0.61-0.61-0.61-0.61
Accounts Payable --8.6110.694.5842.38-36.350.210.210.210.21
Capital Expenditure -3.74-3.12-9.63-4.43-10.52-6.46-6.48-6.49-6.51-6.53
UFCF 69.2518.828.16-142.75-24.429.89-54.86-55.01-55.16-55.30
WACC
PV UFCF 9.14-46.83-43.38-40.18-37.22
SUM PV UFCF -158.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.24
Free cash flow (t + 1) -56.41
Terminal Value -904.02
Present Value of Terminal Value -608.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -766.94
Net Debt 317.21
Equity Value -1,084.15
Shares Outstanding 12.63
Equity Value Per Share -85.82