Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
VSE Corporation (VSEC)
$56.81
+0.95 (+1.70%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 760.11 | 697.22 | 752.63 | 661.66 | 750.85 | 752.85 | 754.86 | 756.87 | 758.89 | 760.91 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 80.21 | 79.45 | 87.18 | 38.06 | 47.12 | 68.60 | 68.78 | 68.97 | 69.15 | 69.33 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 54.33 | 54.23 | 60.26 | 13.92 | 21.52 | 42.01 | 42.12 | 42.24 | 42.35 | 42.46 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 25.88 | 25.22 | 26.93 | 24.13 | 25.60 | 26.59 | 26.66 | 26.73 | 26.80 | 26.87 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 0.62 | 0.16 | 0.73 | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 98.34 | 101.26 | 116.91 | 80.55 | 111.29 | 105.38 | 105.66 | 105.95 | 106.23 | 106.51 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 132.59 | 166.39 | 218.63 | 253.42 | 322.70 | 228.32 | 228.93 | 229.54 | 230.15 | 230.76 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 66.02 | 57.41 | 68.10 | 72.68 | 115.06 | 78.71 | 78.92 | 79.13 | 79.34 | 79.56 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3.74 | -3.12 | -9.63 | -4.43 | -10.52 | -6.46 | -6.48 | -6.49 | -6.51 | -6.53 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 56.81 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.468 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12.63 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 15.71 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.20% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.463 |
| Total Debt | 317.73 |
| Total Equity | 717.67 |
| Total Capital | 1,035.40 |
| Debt Weighting | 30.69 |
| Equity Weighting | 69.31 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 760.11 | 697.22 | 752.63 | 661.66 | 750.85 | 752.85 | 754.86 | 756.87 | 758.89 | 760.91 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 80.21 | 79.45 | 87.18 | 38.06 | 47.12 | 68.60 | 68.78 | 68.97 | 69.15 | 69.33 |
| EBIT | 54.33 | 54.23 | 60.26 | 13.92 | 21.52 | 42.01 | 42.12 | 42.24 | 42.35 | 42.46 |
| Tax Rate | 13.28% | 22.47% | 20.25% | 1,311.01% | 15.71% | 276.55% | 276.55% | 276.55% | 276.55% | 276.55% |
| EBIAT | 47.11 | 42.04 | 48.05 | -168.61 | 18.14 | -74.17 | -74.37 | -74.57 | -74.76 | -74.96 |
| Depreciation | 25.88 | 25.22 | 26.93 | 24.13 | 25.60 | 26.59 | 26.66 | 26.73 | 26.80 | 26.87 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -2.92 | -15.65 | 36.36 | -30.74 | 5.91 | -0.28 | -0.28 | -0.28 | -0.28 |
| Inventories | - | -33.80 | -52.23 | -34.80 | -69.28 | 94.38 | -0.61 | -0.61 | -0.61 | -0.61 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -8.61 | 10.69 | 4.58 | 42.38 | -36.35 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3.74 | -3.12 | -9.63 | -4.43 | -10.52 | -6.46 | -6.48 | -6.49 | -6.51 | -6.53 |
| UFCF | 69.25 | 18.82 | 8.16 | -142.75 | -24.42 | 9.89 | -54.86 | -55.01 | -55.16 | -55.30 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 9.14 | -46.83 | -43.38 | -40.18 | -37.22 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -158.47 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.24 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -56.41 |
| Terminal Value | -904.02 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -608.47 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -766.94 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 317.21 |
| Equity Value | -1,084.15 |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.63 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -85.82 |