Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Western Forest Products Inc. (WEF.TO)

$1.1

-0.03 (-2.65%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.84 | 1.1 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,143.401,196.70807.70964.901,417.701,554.311,704.091,868.302,048.342,245.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 139.60137-10.30109.10316.60174.15190.93209.33229.50251.62
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 103.3096.80-55.7055.60265.70107.97118.37129.78142.28155.99
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 36.3040.2045.4053.5050.9066.1872.5679.5587.2295.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 35.308.402.102.9013042.0346.0850.5255.3960.72
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 86.2091.3040.1066.8057.4096.69106.01116.23127.43139.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 152174.90132177.90207.20240.31263.47288.85316.69347.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable --3541.8161.4367.3573.8480.9688.7697.31
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -55.20-95.10-37.20-18.70-33.10-67.31-73.80-80.91-88.71-97.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.1
Beta 2.019
Diluted Shares Outstanding 375.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.06
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.88%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.231
Total Debt 18.30
Total Equity 412.72
Total Capital 431.02
Debt Weighting 4.25
Equity Weighting 95.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,143.401,196.70807.70964.901,417.701,554.311,704.091,868.302,048.342,245.73
EBITDA 139.60137-10.30109.10316.60174.15190.93209.33229.50251.62
EBIT 103.3096.80-55.7055.60265.70107.97118.37129.78142.28155.99
Tax Rate 26.55%27.00%26.97%31.04%24.06%27.13%27.13%27.13%27.13%27.13%
EBIAT 75.8770.66-40.6838.34201.7878.6886.2694.57103.69113.68
Depreciation 36.3040.2045.4053.5050.9066.1872.5679.5587.2295.62
Accounts Receivable --5.1051.20-26.709.40-39.29-9.32-10.22-11.20-12.28
Inventories --22.9042.90-45.90-29.30-33.11-23.16-25.39-27.83-30.52
Accounts Payable ---6.8119.625.926.497.127.808.55
Capital Expenditure -55.20-95.10-37.20-18.70-33.10-67.31-73.80-80.91-88.71-97.25
UFCF 56.97-12.2461.627.35219.3011.0759.0464.7370.9777.80
WACC
PV UFCF 9.7946.2444.8643.5242.23
SUM PV UFCF 186.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 79.36
Terminal Value 721.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 391.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 578.22
Net Debt -111.70
Equity Value 689.92
Shares Outstanding 375.20
Equity Value Per Share 1.84