Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

TMX Group Limited (X.TO)

$127.06

+2.00 (+1.60%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 267.95 | 127.06 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 668.90817.10806.90865.10980.701,082.411,194.661,318.551,455.301,606.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 541.10476.70453.90503.80657.90694.49766.51846933.741,030.58
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 485406.40374.30423.50570.80597.03658.95727.28802.71885.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 56.1070.3079.6080.3087.1097.46107.56118.72131.03144.62
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 225.10230.70229.40277.90341.60340.46375.77414.74457.75505.23
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 106.80112.40114.10112.80134.60152.89168.75186.25205.57226.88
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 30.2039.2044.9051.6068.2060.1766.4173.3080.9089.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -39.60-58.80-57.60-67.10-51.20-71.94-79.40-87.64-96.72-106.76
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 127.06
Beta 0.563
Diluted Shares Outstanding 56.47
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.38
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.462
Total Debt 1,096.70
Total Equity 7,175.71
Total Capital 8,272.41
Debt Weighting 13.26
Equity Weighting 86.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 668.90817.10806.90865.10980.701,082.411,194.661,318.551,455.301,606.22
EBITDA 541.10476.70453.90503.80657.90694.49766.51846933.741,030.58
EBIT 485406.40374.30423.50570.80597.03658.95727.28802.71885.96
Tax Rate -31.33%21.06%26.07%28.06%29.38%14.65%14.65%14.65%14.65%14.65%
EBIAT 636.97320.81276.73304.66403.12509.59562.44620.77685.14756.20
Depreciation 56.1070.3079.6080.3087.1097.46107.56118.72131.03144.62
Accounts Receivable --5.60-1.701.30-21.80-18.29-15.86-17.50-19.32-21.32
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -95.706.7016.60-8.036.246.897.608.39
Capital Expenditure -39.60-58.80-57.60-67.10-51.20-71.94-79.40-87.64-96.72-106.76
UFCF 653.47335.71302.73325.86433.82508.79580.99641.24707.74781.14
WACC
PV UFCF 478.23513.29532.50552.42573.09
SUM PV UFCF 2,649.52

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.39
Free cash flow (t + 1) 796.76
Terminal Value 18,149.40
Present Value of Terminal Value 13,315.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 15,965.05
Net Debt 832.40
Equity Value 15,132.65
Shares Outstanding 56.47
Equity Value Per Share 267.95