Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

XL Fleet Corp. (XL)

$1.14

+0.27 (+30.91%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -60.11 | 1.14 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Projected	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	10,484.91	11,144.49	11,845.57	12,590.75	13,382.81	14,224.70	15,119.54	16,070.69	17,081.66	18,156.24	19,298.41
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	810.92	-213.93	344.39	366.05	389.08	413.55	439.57	467.22	496.61	527.85	561.06
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	692.86	-310.97	226.12	240.35	255.47	271.54	288.62	306.78	326.07	346.59	368.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	118.06	97.04	118.26	125.70	133.61	142.02	150.95	160.45	170.54	181.27	192.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Projected	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	4,061.74	4,266.40	4,561.82	4,848.80	5,153.82	5,478.04	5,822.65	6,188.95	6,578.28	6,992.11	7,431.97
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	11,720.16	15,313.83	14,759.16	15,687.63	16,674.51	17,723.47	18,838.42	20,023.51	21,283.15	22,622.03	24,045.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	2.24	3.57	15.26	7.65	8.13	8.64	9.19	9.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	2,677.73	4,039.11	3,659.21	3,889.40	4,134.08	4,394.15	4,670.57	4,964.39	5,276.69	5,608.64	5,961.46
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-	-	-	-0.03	-0.14	-3.64	-1.36	-1.44	-1.53	-1.63	-1.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.14
Beta	0.887
Diluted Shares Outstanding	131.37
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.85%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.901
Total Debt	4.60
Total Equity	149.76
Total Capital	154.35
Debt Weighting	2.98
Equity Weighting	97.02
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Projected	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	10,484.91	11,144.49	11,845.57	12,590.75	13,382.81	14,224.70	15,119.54	16,070.69	17,081.66	18,156.24	19,298.41
EBITDA	810.92	-213.93	344.39	366.05	389.08	413.55	439.57	467.22	496.61	527.85	561.06
EBIT	692.86	-310.97	226.12	240.35	255.47	271.54	288.62	306.78	326.07	346.59	368.39
Tax Rate	22.35%	-13.28%	1.81%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	1.81%	1.81%	1.81%	1.81%	1.81%
EBIAT	538.02	-352.26	222.02	240.35	255.47	271.54	283.38	301.21	320.16	340.30	361.71
Depreciation	118.06	97.04	118.26	125.70	133.61	142.02	150.95	160.45	170.54	181.27	192.67
Accounts Receivable	-	-3,593.67	554.67	-928.47	-986.88	-1,048.96	-1,114.95	-1,185.09	-1,259.64	-1,338.88	-1,423.11
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-1.33	-11.69	7.61	-0.48	-0.51	-0.54	-0.58
Accounts Payable	-	1,361.38	-379.89	230.19	244.67	260.07	276.43	293.82	312.30	331.95	352.83
Capital Expenditure	-	-	-	-0.03	-0.14	-3.64	-1.36	-1.44	-1.53	-1.63	-1.73
UFCF	656.08	-2,487.51	515.06	-332.25	-354.61	-390.67	-397.93	-431.54	-458.68	-487.54	-518.21
WACC
PV UFCF			597.32	-357.80	-354.61	-362.77	-343.13	-345.54	-341.05	-336.61	-332.24
SUM PV UFCF											-1,829.19

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.69
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-528.57
Terminal Value	-9,289.53
Present Value of Terminal Value	-6,413.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-8,243.01
Net Debt	-347.08
Equity Value	-7,895.93
Shares Outstanding	131.37
Equity Value Per Share	-60.11