Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Exco Technologies Limited (XTC.TO)
$7.9
+0.06 (+0.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 575.55 | 507.35 | 412.31 | 461.17 | 489.94 | 474.64 | 459.82 | 445.45 | 431.54 | 418.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 76.58 | 56.27 | 53.51 | 70.09 | 53.05 | 60.18 | 58.30 | 56.48 | 54.72 | 53.01 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 55.66 | 36.81 | 32.06 | 49 | 27.67 | 38.90 | 37.68 | 36.51 | 35.37 | 34.26 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 20.91 | 19.46 | 21.46 | 21.08 | 25.37 | 21.29 | 20.62 | 19.98 | 19.35 | 18.75 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 31.34 | 26.49 | 33.12 | 24.10 | 17.02 | 26.01 | 25.20 | 24.41 | 23.65 | 22.91 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 130.13 | 114.15 | 84.98 | 85.87 | 123.05 | 103.90 | 100.66 | 97.51 | 94.47 | 91.52 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 63.77 | 57.85 | 61.16 | 77.76 | 97.96 | 70.41 | 68.21 | 66.08 | 64.02 | 62.02 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 46.97 | 44.18 | 32.87 | 33.79 | 51.36 | 40.49 | 39.22 | 38 | 36.81 | 35.66 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -23.51 | -27.97 | -23.49 | -38.71 | -53.51 | -32.86 | -31.83 | -30.84 | -29.87 | -28.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.9 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.162 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 39.29 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.74 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.63% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.197 |
| Total Debt | 114.01 |
| Total Equity | 310.41 |
| Total Capital | 424.43 |
| Debt Weighting | 26.86 |
| Equity Weighting | 73.14 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 575.55 | 507.35 | 412.31 | 461.17 | 489.94 | 474.64 | 459.82 | 445.45 | 431.54 | 418.06 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 76.58 | 56.27 | 53.51 | 70.09 | 53.05 | 60.18 | 58.30 | 56.48 | 54.72 | 53.01 |
| EBIT | 55.66 | 36.81 | 32.06 | 49 | 27.67 | 38.90 | 37.68 | 36.51 | 35.37 | 34.26 |
| Tax Rate | 22.61% | 25.97% | 12.73% | 20.91% | 24.74% | 21.39% | 21.39% | 21.39% | 21.39% | 21.39% |
| EBIAT | 43.08 | 27.25 | 27.98 | 38.76 | 20.83 | 30.58 | 29.62 | 28.70 | 27.80 | 26.93 |
| Depreciation | 20.91 | 19.46 | 21.46 | 21.08 | 25.37 | 21.29 | 20.62 | 19.98 | 19.35 | 18.75 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 15.98 | 29.16 | -0.89 | -37.18 | 19.15 | 3.25 | 3.14 | 3.05 | 2.95 |
| Inventories | - | 5.92 | -3.31 | -16.60 | -20.20 | 27.55 | 2.20 | 2.13 | 2.06 | 2 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -2.78 | -11.31 | 0.92 | 17.57 | -10.87 | -1.26 | -1.23 | -1.19 | -1.15 |
| Capital Expenditure | -23.51 | -27.97 | -23.50 | -38.71 | -53.51 | -32.86 | -31.83 | -30.84 | -29.87 | -28.94 |
| UFCF | 40.48 | 37.86 | 40.48 | 4.56 | -47.12 | 54.84 | 22.59 | 21.89 | 21.20 | 20.54 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 51.17 | 19.67 | 17.78 | 16.07 | 14.53 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 119.23 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.17 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 20.95 |
| Terminal Value | 405.27 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 286.67 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 405.90 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 96.99 |
| Equity Value | 308.91 |
| Shares Outstanding | 39.29 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 7.86 |