Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

111, Inc. (YI)

$2.82

-0.10 (-3.42%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -4,231.84 | 2.82 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 153.52285.76632.331,288.122,624.045,345.4510,889.2622,182.6045,188.3392,053.49
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -37.39-59.01-77.49-245.87-500.87-1,020.32-2,078.50-4,234.13-8,625.38-17,570.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -39.76-60.81-79.36-256.48-522.48-1,064.34-2,168.18-4,416.82-8,997.53-18,328.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2.371.801.8710.6121.6144.0289.68182.68372.14758.10
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 73.79177.0593238.37135.031,586.353,231.576,583.0613,410.4127,318.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 15.2825.6741.5370.3679.23363.31740.091,507.653,071.246,256.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 23.0533.7377.80122.64179.38593.141,208.282,461.405,014.1310,214.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 20.5033.9671.09171.74223.08623.461,270.052,587.235,270.4610,736.50
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1.10-2.37-3.94-9.31-18.96-38.62-78.67-160.26-326.47-665.06
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.82
Beta 0.978
Diluted Shares Outstanding 82.39
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -7.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.29%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.578
Total Debt 68.04
Total Equity 232.35
Total Capital 300.39
Debt Weighting 22.65
Equity Weighting 77.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 153.52285.76632.331,288.122,624.045,345.4510,889.2622,182.6045,188.3392,053.49
EBITDA -37.39-59.01-77.49-245.87-500.87-1,020.32-2,078.50-4,234.13-8,625.38-17,570.83
EBIT -39.76-60.81-79.36-256.48-522.48-1,064.34-2,168.18-4,416.82-8,997.53-18,328.93
Tax Rate 0.30%0.51%0.44%-1.65%-7.86%-1.65%-1.65%-1.65%-1.65%-1.65%
EBIAT -39.64-60.50-79.01-260.72-563.52-1,081.92-2,203.98-4,489.75-9,146.10-18,631.59
Depreciation 2.371.801.8710.6121.6144.0289.68182.68372.14758.10
Accounts Receivable --10.39-15.86-28.83-8.87-284.07-376.79-767.56-1,563.59-3,185.21
Inventories --10.68-44.07-44.84-56.73-413.76-615.15-1,253.12-2,552.73-5,200.19
Accounts Payable -13.4637.13100.6451.34400.38646.591,317.182,683.235,466.04
Capital Expenditure -1.10-2.37-3.94-9.31-18.96-38.62-78.67-160.26-326.47-665.06
UFCF -38.37-68.69-103.88-232.44-575.13-1,373.97-2,538.32-5,170.82-10,533.52-21,457.92
WACC
PV UFCF -248.55-575.13-1,284.92-2,219.97-4,229.23-8,057.04-15,349.34
SUM PV UFCF -31,140.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) -21,887.08
Terminal Value -443,956.93
Present Value of Terminal Value -317,572.58

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -348,713.08
Net Debt -37.78
Equity Value -348,675.30
Shares Outstanding 82.39
Equity Value Per Share -4,231.84