Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Zealand Pharma A/S (ZEAL)

$17.47

-0.12 (-0.68%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -27,944.47 | 17.47 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 139.7837.9841.33353.31292.57785.262,107.665,657.0215,183.6240,753.31
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -254.10644.64-559.79-794.07-982.60-627.07-1,683.08-4,517.45-12,124.98-32,543.81
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -258.86640.14-573.47-836.76-1,022.85-743.63-1,995.93-5,357.13-14,378.71-38,592.91
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4.764.5113.6842.6940.25116.56312.84839.682,253.746,049.10
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 663.831,159.251,380.511,158.121,428.1512,066.7932,387.6386,929.39233,321.17626,241.24
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 32.117.8415.7912.69110.39193.38519.031,393.083,739.0710,035.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---45.70118.44209.73562.921,510.894,055.2710,884.46
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 29.4332.6557.5359.3164.56447.721,201.693,225.398,657.0323,235.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7.23-4.04-23.52-25.04-22.13-137.18-368.21-988.28-2,652.58-7,119.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.47
Beta 1.336
Diluted Shares Outstanding 38.37
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.125
Total Debt 787.43
Total Equity 670.32
Total Capital 1,457.75
Debt Weighting 54.02
Equity Weighting 45.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 139.7837.9841.33353.31292.57785.262,107.665,657.0215,183.6240,753.31
EBITDA -254.10644.64-559.79-794.07-982.60-627.07-1,683.08-4,517.45-12,124.98-32,543.81
EBIT -258.86640.14-573.47-836.76-1,022.85-743.63-1,995.93-5,357.13-14,378.71-38,592.91
Tax Rate 1.98%7.00%0.89%-0.84%0.86%1.98%1.98%1.98%1.98%1.98%
EBIAT -253.73595.31-568.36-843.81-1,014.09-728.93-1,956.46-5,251.20-14,094.38-37,829.76
Depreciation 4.764.5113.6842.6940.25116.56312.84839.682,253.746,049.10
Accounts Receivable -24.27-7.953.09-97.69-82.99-325.65-874.06-2,345.99-6,296.71
Inventories -----72.74-91.29-353.19-947.97-2,544.38-6,829.20
Accounts Payable -3.2224.881.775.25383.16753.972,023.695,431.6514,578.71
Capital Expenditure -7.23-4.04-23.52-25.04-22.13-137.18-368.21-988.28-2,652.58-7,119.60
UFCF -256.20623.27-561.27-821.30-1,161.16-540.67-1,936.69-5,198.13-13,951.95-37,447.45
WACC
PV UFCF -515.27-1,758.98-4,499.33-11,508.96-29,439.06
SUM PV UFCF -47,721.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) -38,196.40
Terminal Value -1,303,631.46
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,024,840.94

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,072,562.54
Net Debt -341.67
Equity Value -1,072,220.87
Shares Outstanding 38.37
Equity Value Per Share -27,944.47