FMP

FMP

Dow's Historic Losing Streak as Fed Decision Nears

On Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell for the ninth consecutive session, marking its longest losing streak since 1978. The index dropped 266 points (0.6%), while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite also declined by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.


Key Developments:

  1. Retail Sales Beat Expectations:
    November retail sales rose by 0.7%, exceeding the forecasted 0.6%, showcasing the resilience of the U.S. economy despite high interest rates. This growth highlights strong consumer spending, a critical driver of economic stability.

    • API: Economics Calendar: Track upcoming retail sales data and other economic indicators that influence market sentiment.
  2. Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations:
    Investors widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday. However, the central bank's outlook on rates for 2025 is under scrutiny, as concerns grow over sticky inflation and robust labor market performance.

    • API: Sector P/E Ratios: Analyze sector-specific performance under varying interest rate regimes, helping investors identify opportunities or risks.

Analyst Outlook:

Goldman Sachs forecasts a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025 and does not anticipate any cuts in January. CME FedWatch indicates an 81.9% probability that the Fed will maintain rates in January, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

With the Fed's outlook expected to dominate market direction, traders are preparing for a potentially volatile session following Wednesday's announcement.