agilon health Inc (NYSE:AGL) shares fell nearly 13% yesterday after the company’s investor day. Management raised its 2026 EBITDA outlook, as well as painted a clearer path to achieving those targets.

The company elevated its base case to over $600 million (vs previous $580 million) –driven by a steeper ramp in MA members and continued positive progression in medical margins – despite also dampening its long-term expected contributions from ACO REACH and Hawaii.

While encouraging, the analysts at RBC Capital believe yesterday’s stock drop relates to (1) the optics of the 2026 update being softer than what some investors were expecting, and (2) with shares previously approaching $30, the expectation of another secondary following the event.