DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) shares fell more than 17% since the WSJ article last week, indicating OSB operators led by DraftKings and FanDuel pulled back on ads for a ballot measure to legalize online sports betting in California.

According to the analysts at Oppenheimer, the much worse sell-off (vs. peers) of DraftKings shares was somewhat surprising, given that since mid-September, polling data for both CA sports betting measures, Prop-26 (in-person at tribal casinos) and Prop-27 (legalized through mobile platforms), are trending toward voters opposing both measures.

The analysts believe both measures do not pass, and that the most likely scenario is the mobile operators and tribes negotiate terms for a unified measure that carries a similar taxes/ licensing structure to legalized states with a large tribal presence. According to the analysts, OSB can then pass through a legislator or a ‘24 ballot measure, therefore, they see the earliest sports betting goes live in California is 2025.