Baird analysts reduced their price target for Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) to $36 from $40, maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock. The revised outlook reflects concerns over declining retail performance and persistent inventory challenges faced by dealers.

Insights from dealer checks suggest U.S. retail sales are trending lower, with declines estimated in the high-single to low-double-digit percentage range for the quarter. Inventory levels remain a point of stress for dealers, further complicating the company’s efforts to stabilize performance.

A core challenge lies in Harley-Davidson's payment-sensitive customer base, many of whom appear to be pulling back amid financial pressures. While the brand retains significant value and loyalty, the analysts mentioned that these headwinds pose modest downside risks to 2025 expectations.

Given the current dynamics, the analysts adopt a cautious stance, opting to remain neutral as Harley-Davidson navigates through these challenging market conditions.