Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Alcoa Corporation (AA)

$27.54

+0.33 (+1.21%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.85 | 27.54 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 10,4959,37212,43712,76210,55110,743.3410,939.1811,138.6011,341.6511,548.40
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 68639492082291546.65556.61566.76577.09587.61
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -379-353-390-480-531-414.85-422.42-430.12-437.96-445.94
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 30741530342-440131.79134.20136.64139.13141.67

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 27.54
Beta 2.488
Diluted Shares Outstanding 178.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -11.47
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.91%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.967
Total Debt 1,811
Total Equity 4,910.69
Total Capital 6,721.69
Debt Weighting 26.94
Equity Weighting 73.06
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 10,4959,37212,43712,76210,55110,743.3410,939.1811,138.6011,341.6511,548.40
Operating Cash Flow 68639492082291546.65556.61566.76577.09587.61
Capital Expenditure -379-353-390-480-531-414.85-422.42-430.12-437.96-445.94
Free Cash Flow 30741530342-440131.79134.20136.64139.13141.67
WACC
PV LFCF 116.36104.6194.0584.5576.01
SUM PV LFCF 475.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.26
Free cash flow (t + 1) 144.50
Terminal Value 1,283.34
Present Value of Terminal Value 688.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,164.18
Net Debt 835
Equity Value 329.18
Shares Outstanding 178.31
Equity Value Per Share 1.85