Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)

$17.035

+0.01 (+0.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -692.35 | 17.035 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 44,54145,76817,33729,88248,97158,382.7269,603.2982,980.3298,928.29117,941.30
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 3,5333,815-6,5437042,173-1,714.04-2,043.46-2,436.19-2,904.40-3,462.59
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,745-4,268-1,958-412-2,546-4,157.41-4,956.42-5,908.99-7,044.64-8,398.55
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -212-453-8,501292-373-5,871.45-6,999.88-8,345.18-9,949.04-11,861.14

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.035
Beta 1.476
Diluted Shares Outstanding 655.12
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 31.72
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.581
Total Debt 43,687
Total Equity 11,160
Total Capital 54,847
Debt Weighting 79.65
Equity Weighting 20.35
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 44,54145,76817,33729,88248,97158,382.7269,603.2982,980.3298,928.29117,941.30
Operating Cash Flow 3,5333,815-6,5437042,173-1,714.04-2,043.46-2,436.19-2,904.40-3,462.59
Capital Expenditure -3,745-4,268-1,958-412-2,546-4,157.41-4,956.42-5,908.99-7,044.64-8,398.55
Free Cash Flow -212-453-8,501292-373-5,871.45-6,999.88-8,345.18-9,949.04-11,861.14
WACC
PV LFCF -4,485.43-5,112.81-5,827.93-6,643.08-7,572.25
SUM PV LFCF -37,098.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.59
Free cash flow (t + 1) -12,098.37
Terminal Value -467,118.41
Present Value of Terminal Value -373,229.68

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -410,327.72
Net Debt 43,247
Equity Value -453,574.72
Shares Outstanding 655.12
Equity Value Per Share -692.35