Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
$17.035
+0.01 (+0.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 44,541 | 45,768 | 17,337 | 29,882 | 48,971 | 58,382.72 | 69,603.29 | 82,980.32 | 98,928.29 | 117,941.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,533 | 3,815 | -6,543 | 704 | 2,173 | -1,714.04 | -2,043.46 | -2,436.19 | -2,904.40 | -3,462.59 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3,745 | -4,268 | -1,958 | -412 | -2,546 | -4,157.41 | -4,956.42 | -5,908.99 | -7,044.64 | -8,398.55 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -212 | -453 | -8,501 | 292 | -373 | -5,871.45 | -6,999.88 | -8,345.18 | -9,949.04 | -11,861.14 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.035 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.476 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 655.12 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 31.72 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.07% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.581 |
| Total Debt | 43,687 |
| Total Equity | 11,160 |
| Total Capital | 54,847 |
| Debt Weighting | 79.65 |
| Equity Weighting | 20.35 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 44,541 | 45,768 | 17,337 | 29,882 | 48,971 | 58,382.72 | 69,603.29 | 82,980.32 | 98,928.29 | 117,941.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,533 | 3,815 | -6,543 | 704 | 2,173 | -1,714.04 | -2,043.46 | -2,436.19 | -2,904.40 | -3,462.59 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3,745 | -4,268 | -1,958 | -412 | -2,546 | -4,157.41 | -4,956.42 | -5,908.99 | -7,044.64 | -8,398.55 |
| Free Cash Flow | -212 | -453 | -8,501 | 292 | -373 | -5,871.45 | -6,999.88 | -8,345.18 | -9,949.04 | -11,861.14 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -4,485.43 | -5,112.81 | -5,827.93 | -6,643.08 | -7,572.25 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -37,098.04 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.59 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -12,098.37 |
| Terminal Value | -467,118.41 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -373,229.68 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -410,327.72 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 43,247 |
| Equity Value | -453,574.72 |
| Shares Outstanding | 655.12 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -692.35 |