Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)

$193.42

+1.86 (+0.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 108.02 | 193.42 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,373.789,580.559,7099,881.1710,056.3910,234.7210,416.2110,600.9210,788.9010,980.2211,174.93
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 600.80811.03866.91784.03797.93812.08826.48841.14856.05871.23886.68
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -189.76-193.71-471.65-293.28-298.48-303.77-309.16-314.64-320.22-325.90-331.68
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 411.05617.31395.26490.75499.45508.31517.32526.50535.83545.33555

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 193.42
Beta 1.215
Diluted Shares Outstanding 69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.55
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.86%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.573
Total Debt 3,371.97
Total Equity 13,346.56
Total Capital 16,718.53
Debt Weighting 20.17
Equity Weighting 79.83
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,373.789,580.559,7099,881.1710,056.3910,234.7210,416.2110,600.9210,788.9010,980.2211,174.93
Operating Cash Flow 600.80811.03866.91784.03797.93812.08826.48841.14856.05871.23886.68
Capital Expenditure -189.76-193.71-471.65-293.28-298.48-303.77-309.16-314.64-320.22-325.90-331.68
Free Cash Flow 411.05617.31395.26490.75499.45508.31517.32526.50535.83545.33555
WACC
PV LFCF 525.20499.45474.97451.68429.54408.48388.45369.41
SUM PV LFCF 2,191.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 566.10
Terminal Value 11,276.98
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,032.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,224.12
Net Debt 2,770.54
Equity Value 7,453.58
Shares Outstanding 69
Equity Value Per Share 108.02