Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)

$60.34

-0.76 (-1.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 127.25 | 60.34 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,580.559,70910,106.3210,997.9911,154.7211,592.0112,046.4512,518.7013,009.4613,519.47
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 811.03866.91969.691,112.26722.221,010.291,049.901,091.061,133.831,178.28
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -193.71-471.65-267.81-289.64-425.96-370.53-385.05-400.15-415.83-432.13
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 617.31395.26701.88822.62296.26639.77664.85690.91718746.14

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 60.34
Beta 1.169
Diluted Shares Outstanding 64.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.35%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.845
Total Debt 3,651.60
Total Equity 3,892.47
Total Capital 7,544.07
Debt Weighting 48.40
Equity Weighting 51.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,580.559,70910,106.3210,997.9911,154.7211,592.0112,046.4512,518.7013,009.4613,519.47
Operating Cash Flow 811.03866.91969.691,112.26722.221,010.291,049.901,091.061,133.831,178.28
Capital Expenditure -193.71-471.65-267.81-289.64-425.96-370.53-385.05-400.15-415.83-432.13
Free Cash Flow 617.31395.26701.88822.62296.26639.77664.85690.91718746.14
WACC
PV LFCF 599.59583.97568.76553.94539.51
SUM PV LFCF 2,845.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) 749.87
Terminal Value 12,094.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,745.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,591.07
Net Debt 3,382.32
Equity Value 8,208.75
Shares Outstanding 64.51
Equity Value Per Share 127.25