Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)
$193.42
+1.86 (+0.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,373.78 | 9,580.55 | 9,709 | 9,881.17 | 10,056.39 | 10,234.72 | 10,416.21 | 10,600.92 | 10,788.90 | 10,980.22 | 11,174.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 600.80 | 811.03 | 866.91 | 784.03 | 797.93 | 812.08 | 826.48 | 841.14 | 856.05 | 871.23 | 886.68 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -189.76 | -193.71 | -471.65 | -293.28 | -298.48 | -303.77 | -309.16 | -314.64 | -320.22 | -325.90 | -331.68 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | |||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 411.05 | 617.31 | 395.26 | 490.75 | 499.45 | 508.31 | 517.32 | 526.50 | 535.83 | 545.33 | 555 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 193.42 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.215 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 69 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.55 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.86% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.573 |
| Total Debt | 3,371.97 |
| Total Equity | 13,346.56 |
| Total Capital | 16,718.53 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.17 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.83 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,373.78 | 9,580.55 | 9,709 | 9,881.17 | 10,056.39 | 10,234.72 | 10,416.21 | 10,600.92 | 10,788.90 | 10,980.22 | 11,174.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 600.80 | 811.03 | 866.91 | 784.03 | 797.93 | 812.08 | 826.48 | 841.14 | 856.05 | 871.23 | 886.68 |
| Capital Expenditure | -189.76 | -193.71 | -471.65 | -293.28 | -298.48 | -303.77 | -309.16 | -314.64 | -320.22 | -325.90 | -331.68 |
| Free Cash Flow | 411.05 | 617.31 | 395.26 | 490.75 | 499.45 | 508.31 | 517.32 | 526.50 | 535.83 | 545.33 | 555 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 525.20 | 499.45 | 474.97 | 451.68 | 429.54 | 408.48 | 388.45 | 369.41 | |||
| SUM PV LFCF | 2,191.30 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.02 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 566.10 |
| Terminal Value | 11,276.98 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 8,032.82 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 10,224.12 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,770.54 |
| Equity Value | 7,453.58 |
| Shares Outstanding | 69 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 108.02 |