Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO)
$11.43
+0.25 (+2.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,795.55 | 4,035.72 | 4,308.21 | 3,759.11 | 5,010.79 | 5,432.08 | 5,888.80 | 6,383.92 | 6,920.67 | 7,502.55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 394.43 | 456.64 | 415.42 | 202.50 | 303.67 | 464.95 | 504.04 | 546.42 | 592.36 | 642.17 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -172.15 | -189.69 | -210.36 | -127.98 | -233.85 | -241.08 | -261.34 | -283.32 | -307.14 | -332.96 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 222.28 | 266.95 | 205.06 | 74.52 | 69.82 | 223.87 | 242.70 | 263.10 | 285.22 | 309.20 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 11.43 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.330 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 166.46 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.92 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.44% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.168 |
| Total Debt | 1,806.49 |
| Total Equity | 1,902.58 |
| Total Capital | 3,709.07 |
| Debt Weighting | 48.70 |
| Equity Weighting | 51.30 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,795.55 | 4,035.72 | 4,308.21 | 3,759.11 | 5,010.79 | 5,432.08 | 5,888.80 | 6,383.92 | 6,920.67 | 7,502.55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 394.43 | 456.64 | 415.42 | 202.50 | 303.67 | 464.95 | 504.04 | 546.42 | 592.36 | 642.17 |
| Capital Expenditure | -172.15 | -189.69 | -210.36 | -127.98 | -233.85 | -241.08 | -261.34 | -283.32 | -307.14 | -332.96 |
| Free Cash Flow | 222.28 | 266.95 | 205.06 | 74.52 | 69.82 | 223.87 | 242.70 | 263.10 | 285.22 | 309.20 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 212.40 | 218.46 | 224.70 | 231.11 | 237.71 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 1,124.38 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.40 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 315.39 |
| Terminal Value | 9,276.10 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,131.20 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 8,255.58 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,371.72 |
| Equity Value | 6,883.86 |
| Shares Outstanding | 166.46 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 41.36 |