Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
AAR Corp. (AIR)
$50.64
+0.73 (+1.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,748.30 | 2,051.80 | 2,072 | 1,652.30 | 1,820 | 1,857.48 | 1,895.74 | 1,934.78 | 1,974.63 | 2,015.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 64.30 | 67.40 | -36.10 | 105.20 | 75.20 | 58.40 | 59.60 | 60.83 | 62.08 | 63.36 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -22 | -17.40 | -23.60 | -11.30 | -17.30 | -18.13 | -18.50 | -18.88 | -19.27 | -19.67 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 42.30 | 50 | -59.70 | 93.90 | 57.90 | 40.27 | 41.10 | 41.94 | 42.81 | 43.69 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 50.64 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.559 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 36 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 25.12 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.15% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.888 |
Total Debt | 156.30 |
Total Equity | 1,823.04 |
Total Capital | 1,979.34 |
Debt Weighting | 7.90 |
Equity Weighting | 92.10 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,748.30 | 2,051.80 | 2,072 | 1,652.30 | 1,820 | 1,857.48 | 1,895.74 | 1,934.78 | 1,974.63 | 2,015.29 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 64.30 | 67.40 | -36.10 | 105.20 | 75.20 | 58.40 | 59.60 | 60.83 | 62.08 | 63.36 |
Capital Expenditure | -22 | -17.40 | -23.60 | -11.30 | -17.30 | -18.13 | -18.50 | -18.88 | -19.27 | -19.67 |
Free Cash Flow | 42.30 | 50 | -59.70 | 93.90 | 57.90 | 40.27 | 41.10 | 41.94 | 42.81 | 43.69 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 36.57 | 33.89 | 31.41 | 29.11 | 26.98 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 157.96 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 10.12 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 44.56 |
Terminal Value | 548.80 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 338.91 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 496.87 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 102.80 |
Equity Value | 394.07 |
Shares Outstanding | 36 |
Equity Value Per Share | 10.95 |