Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Air Transport Services Group, Inc. (ATSG)
$28.16
-0.35 (-1.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,068.20 | 892.35 | 1,452.18 | 1,570.57 | 1,734.28 | 2,015.46 | 2,342.22 | 2,721.96 | 3,163.26 | 3,676.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 234.99 | 298.02 | 396.94 | 512.30 | 583.56 | 600.60 | 697.97 | 811.13 | 942.64 | 1,095.47 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -296.94 | -292.92 | -453.50 | -510.42 | -504.75 | -618.57 | -718.85 | -835.40 | -970.84 | -1,128.24 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -61.95 | 5.11 | -56.56 | 1.88 | 78.81 | -17.97 | -20.88 | -24.27 | -28.20 | -32.77 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 28.16 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.706 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 59.93 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.17 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.31% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.863 |
| Total Debt | 1,362.53 |
| Total Equity | 1,687.66 |
| Total Capital | 3,050.19 |
| Debt Weighting | 44.67 |
| Equity Weighting | 55.33 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,068.20 | 892.35 | 1,452.18 | 1,570.57 | 1,734.28 | 2,015.46 | 2,342.22 | 2,721.96 | 3,163.26 | 3,676.12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 234.99 | 298.02 | 396.94 | 512.30 | 583.56 | 600.60 | 697.97 | 811.13 | 942.64 | 1,095.47 |
| Capital Expenditure | -296.94 | -292.92 | -453.50 | -510.42 | -504.75 | -618.57 | -718.85 | -835.40 | -970.84 | -1,128.24 |
| Free Cash Flow | -61.95 | 5.11 | -56.56 | 1.88 | 78.81 | -17.97 | -20.88 | -24.27 | -28.20 | -32.77 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -17.07 | -18.84 | -20.80 | -22.95 | -25.34 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -104.99 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.28 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -33.43 |
| Terminal Value | -1,019.13 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -787.96 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -892.95 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,293.04 |
| Equity Value | -2,185.99 |
| Shares Outstanding | 59.93 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -36.48 |