Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Aritzia Inc. (ATZ.TO)
$26.08
+0.46 (+1.80%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 874.30 | 980.59 | 857.32 | 1,494.63 | 2,195.63 | 2,858.85 | 3,722.40 | 4,846.80 | 6,310.83 | 8,217.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.17 | 222.08 | 133.95 | 338.35 | 74.91 | 430.66 | 560.75 | 730.13 | 950.68 | 1,237.84 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -62.01 | -47.79 | -50.85 | -67.02 | -125.59 | -160.67 | -209.21 | -272.40 | -354.68 | -461.82 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 34.16 | 174.29 | 83.10 | 271.33 | -50.67 | 269.99 | 351.54 | 457.73 | 595.99 | 776.02 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 26.08 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.563 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 115.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.89 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.597 |
| Total Debt | 772.01 |
| Total Equity | 3,007.05 |
| Total Capital | 3,779.06 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.43 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.57 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 874.30 | 980.59 | 857.32 | 1,494.63 | 2,195.63 | 2,858.85 | 3,722.40 | 4,846.80 | 6,310.83 | 8,217.10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 96.17 | 222.08 | 133.95 | 338.35 | 74.91 | 430.66 | 560.75 | 730.13 | 950.68 | 1,237.84 |
| Capital Expenditure | -62.01 | -47.79 | -50.85 | -67.02 | -125.59 | -160.67 | -209.21 | -272.40 | -354.68 | -461.82 |
| Free Cash Flow | 34.16 | 174.29 | 83.10 | 271.33 | -50.67 | 269.99 | 351.54 | 457.73 | 595.99 | 776.02 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 203.73 | 241.51 | 286.29 | 339.37 | 402.30 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 1,777.40 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.84 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 791.54 |
| Terminal Value | 10,096.21 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,314.74 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 8,092.15 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 685.50 |
| Equity Value | 7,406.65 |
| Shares Outstanding | 115.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 64.24 |