Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

$10.43

-0.51 (-4.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -14.02 | 10.43 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,589.081,893.201,836.601,605.102,212.502,441.412,694.012,972.743,280.323,619.71
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 51.76-69.1017.7042.90-64.701.561.721.902.102.31
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -31.84-83-59.60-13.40-83-69.43-76.61-84.54-93.29-102.94
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 19.92-152.10-41.9029.50-147.70-67.87-74.89-82.64-91.19-100.63

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.43
Beta 2.689
Diluted Shares Outstanding 90.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.44
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.311
Total Debt 474.10
Total Equity 940.79
Total Capital 1,414.89
Debt Weighting 33.51
Equity Weighting 66.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,589.081,893.201,836.601,605.102,212.502,441.412,694.012,972.743,280.323,619.71
Operating Cash Flow 51.76-69.1017.7042.90-64.701.561.721.902.102.31
Capital Expenditure -31.84-83-59.60-13.40-83-69.43-76.61-84.54-93.29-102.94
Free Cash Flow 19.92-152.10-41.9029.50-147.70-67.87-74.89-82.64-91.19-100.63
WACC
PV LFCF -33.19-32.51-31.84-31.19-30.55
SUM PV LFCF -289.09

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.66
Free cash flow (t + 1) -102.64
Terminal Value -962.83
Present Value of Terminal Value -530.52

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -819.62
Net Debt 445.10
Equity Value -1,264.72
Shares Outstanding 90.20
Equity Value Per Share -14.02