Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
$10.43
-0.51 (-4.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,589.08 | 1,893.20 | 1,836.60 | 1,605.10 | 2,212.50 | 2,441.41 | 2,694.01 | 2,972.74 | 3,280.32 | 3,619.71 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 51.76 | -69.10 | 17.70 | 42.90 | -64.70 | 1.56 | 1.72 | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.31 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -31.84 | -83 | -59.60 | -13.40 | -83 | -69.43 | -76.61 | -84.54 | -93.29 | -102.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 19.92 | -152.10 | -41.90 | 29.50 | -147.70 | -67.87 | -74.89 | -82.64 | -91.19 | -100.63 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 10.43 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.689 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 90.20 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 15.44 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.42% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 16.311 |
| Total Debt | 474.10 |
| Total Equity | 940.79 |
| Total Capital | 1,414.89 |
| Debt Weighting | 33.51 |
| Equity Weighting | 66.49 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,589.08 | 1,893.20 | 1,836.60 | 1,605.10 | 2,212.50 | 2,441.41 | 2,694.01 | 2,972.74 | 3,280.32 | 3,619.71 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 51.76 | -69.10 | 17.70 | 42.90 | -64.70 | 1.56 | 1.72 | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.31 |
| Capital Expenditure | -31.84 | -83 | -59.60 | -13.40 | -83 | -69.43 | -76.61 | -84.54 | -93.29 | -102.94 |
| Free Cash Flow | 19.92 | -152.10 | -41.90 | 29.50 | -147.70 | -67.87 | -74.89 | -82.64 | -91.19 | -100.63 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -33.19 | -32.51 | -31.84 | -31.19 | -30.55 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -289.09 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.66 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -102.64 |
| Terminal Value | -962.83 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -530.52 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -819.62 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 445.10 |
| Equity Value | -1,264.72 |
| Shares Outstanding | 90.20 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -14.02 |