Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Century Aluminum Company (CENX)

$10.02

-0.23 (-2.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -26.13 | 10.02 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,893.201,836.601,605.102,212.502,777.303,109.013,480.353,896.034,361.374,882.28
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow -69.1017.7042.90-64.7025.90-12.47-13.96-15.62-17.49-19.58
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -83-59.60-13.40-83-86.30-95.28-106.66-119.40-133.66-149.62
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -152.10-41.9029.50-147.70-60.40-107.75-120.61-135.02-151.15-169.20

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 10.02
Beta 2.699
Diluted Shares Outstanding 91.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 141.92
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.24%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.024
Total Debt 548.60
Total Equity 915.83
Total Capital 1,464.43
Debt Weighting 37.46
Equity Weighting 62.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,893.201,836.601,605.102,212.502,777.303,109.013,480.353,896.034,361.374,882.28
Operating Cash Flow -69.1017.7042.90-64.7025.90-12.47-13.96-15.62-17.49-19.58
Capital Expenditure -83-59.60-13.40-83-86.30-95.28-106.66-119.40-133.66-149.62
Free Cash Flow -152.10-41.9029.50-147.70-60.40-107.75-120.61-135.02-151.15-169.20
WACC
PV LFCF -98.12-100.03-101.97-103.95-105.97
SUM PV LFCF -510.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.81
Free cash flow (t + 1) -172.58
Terminal Value -2,209.78
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,384.01

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,894.06
Net Debt 494.30
Equity Value -2,388.36
Shares Outstanding 91.40
Equity Value Per Share -26.13