Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
$86.095
+0.17 (+0.19%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,130 | 4,429 | 4,590 | 4,124 | 6,538 | 7,506.57 | 8,618.62 | 9,895.42 | 11,361.37 | 13,044.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,631 | 1,497 | 1,505 | 1,231 | 2,873 | 2,700.46 | 3,100.51 | 3,559.84 | 4,087.21 | 4,692.70 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -473 | -422 | -404 | -309 | -524 | -679.95 | -780.68 | -896.33 | -1,029.11 | -1,181.57 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,158 | 1,075 | 1,101 | 922 | 2,349 | 2,020.51 | 2,319.84 | 2,663.51 | 3,058.09 | 3,511.13 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 86.095 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.077 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 207.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 40.57 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.80% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.703 |
| Total Debt | 3,716 |
| Total Equity | 17,847.92 |
| Total Capital | 21,563.92 |
| Debt Weighting | 17.23 |
| Equity Weighting | 82.77 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,130 | 4,429 | 4,590 | 4,124 | 6,538 | 7,506.57 | 8,618.62 | 9,895.42 | 11,361.37 | 13,044.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,631 | 1,497 | 1,505 | 1,231 | 2,873 | 2,700.46 | 3,100.51 | 3,559.84 | 4,087.21 | 4,692.70 |
| Capital Expenditure | -473 | -422 | -404 | -309 | -524 | -679.95 | -780.68 | -896.33 | -1,029.11 | -1,181.57 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,158 | 1,075 | 1,101 | 922 | 2,349 | 2,020.51 | 2,319.84 | 2,663.51 | 3,058.09 | 3,511.13 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,295.42 | 1,381.12 | 1,472.49 | 1,569.90 | 1,673.76 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 10,707.27 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.69 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,581.35 |
| Terminal Value | 62,941.21 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 43,456.84 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 54,164.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,088 |
| Equity Value | 52,076.11 |
| Shares Outstanding | 207.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 251.21 |