Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

$86.095

+0.17 (+0.19%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 251.21 | 86.095 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,1304,4294,5904,1246,5387,506.578,618.629,895.4211,361.3713,044.50
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 1,6311,4971,5051,2312,8732,700.463,100.513,559.844,087.214,692.70
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -473-422-404-309-524-679.95-780.68-896.33-1,029.11-1,181.57
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 1,1581,0751,1019222,3492,020.512,319.842,663.513,058.093,511.13

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 86.095
Beta 1.077
Diluted Shares Outstanding 207.30
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 40.57
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.80%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.703
Total Debt 3,716
Total Equity 17,847.92
Total Capital 21,563.92
Debt Weighting 17.23
Equity Weighting 82.77
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,1304,4294,5904,1246,5387,506.578,618.629,895.4211,361.3713,044.50
Operating Cash Flow 1,6311,4971,5051,2312,8732,700.463,100.513,559.844,087.214,692.70
Capital Expenditure -473-422-404-309-524-679.95-780.68-896.33-1,029.11-1,181.57
Free Cash Flow 1,1581,0751,1019222,3492,020.512,319.842,663.513,058.093,511.13
WACC
PV LFCF 1,295.421,381.121,472.491,569.901,673.76
SUM PV LFCF 10,707.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,581.35
Terminal Value 62,941.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 43,456.84

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 54,164.11
Net Debt 2,088
Equity Value 52,076.11
Shares Outstanding 207.30
Equity Value Per Share 251.21