Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

$80.02

+0.24 (+0.30%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 249.09 | 80.02 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 4,5904,1246,53811,1866,6317,936.559,499.1511,369.4013,607.8716,287.08
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 1,5051,2312,8733,8552,7552,898.293,468.934,151.914,969.365,947.76
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -404-309-524-462-1,724-864.11-1,034.24-1,237.86-1,481.58-1,773.28
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 1,1019222,3493,3931,0312,034.192,434.692,914.053,487.784,174.48

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 80.02
Beta 1.012
Diluted Shares Outstanding 193.80
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 32.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.15%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.062
Total Debt 3,232
Total Equity 15,507.88
Total Capital 18,739.88
Debt Weighting 17.25
Equity Weighting 82.75
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 4,5904,1246,53811,1866,6317,936.559,499.1511,369.4013,607.8716,287.08
Operating Cash Flow 1,5051,2312,8733,8552,7552,898.293,468.934,151.914,969.365,947.76
Capital Expenditure -404-309-524-462-1,724-864.11-1,034.24-1,237.86-1,481.58-1,773.28
Free Cash Flow 1,1019222,3493,3931,0312,034.192,434.692,914.053,487.784,174.48
WACC
PV LFCF 1,882.812,085.812,310.692,559.832,835.82
SUM PV LFCF 11,674.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,195.35
Terminal Value 55,641.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 37,798.43

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 49,473.39
Net Debt 1,200
Equity Value 48,273.39
Shares Outstanding 193.80
Equity Value Per Share 249.09