Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Ecopetrol S.A. (EC)

$9.84

-0.05 (-0.51%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 7,429,158.17 | 9.84 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	68,603,872	71,488,511.83	50,223,392.55	91,743,999.30	159,473,998.53	211,683,956.48	280,986,855.81	372,978,729.49	495,087,687.45	657,173,717.67
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	22,469,193.67	27,711,766.69	9,186,703.76	22,535,999.66	36,234,999.40	58,040,897.95	77,042,822.21	102,265,758.52	135,746,394.87	180,188,207.54
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-8,460,425.70	-13,979,140.98	-11,116,861.05	-13,295,000.01	-21,879,000.14	-34,814,555.33	-46,212,441.42	-61,341,864.69	-81,424,487.60	-108,081,930.90
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	14,008,767.97	13,732,625.71	-1,930,157.30	9,240,999.65	14,355,999.25	23,226,342.62	30,830,380.79	40,923,893.83	54,321,907.27	72,106,276.64

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 9.84
Beta	0.794
Diluted Shares Outstanding	2,055.83
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	38.49
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.43%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.228
Total Debt	115,135,000
Total Equity	20,229.41
Total Capital	115,155,229.41
Debt Weighting	99.98
Equity Weighting	0.02
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	68,603,872	71,488,511.83	50,223,392.55	91,743,999.30	159,473,998.53	211,683,956.48	280,986,855.81	372,978,729.49	495,087,687.45	657,173,717.67
Operating Cash Flow	22,469,193.67	27,711,766.69	9,186,703.76	22,535,999.66	36,234,999.40	58,040,897.95	77,042,822.21	102,265,758.52	135,746,394.87	180,188,207.54
Capital Expenditure	-8,460,425.70	-13,979,140.98	-11,116,861.05	-13,295,000.01	-21,879,000.14	-34,814,555.33	-46,212,441.42	-61,341,864.69	-81,424,487.60	-108,081,930.90
Free Cash Flow	14,008,767.97	13,732,625.71	-1,930,157.30	9,240,999.65	14,355,999.25	23,226,342.62	30,830,380.79	40,923,893.83	54,321,907.27	72,106,276.64
WACC
PV LFCF						22,675,332.05	29,384,922.07	38,079,867.73	49,347,632.18	63,949,507.90
SUM PV LFCF										203,437,261.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	2.43
Free cash flow (t + 1)	73,548,402.18
Terminal Value	17,104,279,575.95
Present Value of Terminal Value	15,169,418,152.68

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	15,372,855,414.60
Net Debt	99,734,000
Equity Value	15,273,121,414.60
Shares Outstanding	2,055.83
Equity Value Per Share	7,429,158.17