Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)
$264.025
-5.52 (-2.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 13,683 | 14,863 | 14,294 | 16,215 | 17,737 | 18,961.79 | 20,271.15 | 21,670.93 | 23,167.37 | 24,767.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,573 | 2,517 | 2,280 | 3,631 | 3,040 | 3,459.46 | 3,698.35 | 3,953.73 | 4,226.75 | 4,518.61 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -629 | -744 | -623 | -637 | -1,040 | -900.80 | -963 | -1,029.50 | -1,100.59 | -1,176.59 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,944 | 1,773 | 1,657 | 2,994 | 2,000 | 2,558.66 | 2,735.34 | 2,924.23 | 3,126.15 | 3,342.02 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 264.025 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.943 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 364.90 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.28 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.87% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.071 |
| Total Debt | 7,012 |
| Total Equity | 96,342.72 |
| Total Capital | 103,354.72 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.78 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.22 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 13,683 | 14,863 | 14,294 | 16,215 | 17,737 | 18,961.79 | 20,271.15 | 21,670.93 | 23,167.37 | 24,767.14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,573 | 2,517 | 2,280 | 3,631 | 3,040 | 3,459.46 | 3,698.35 | 3,953.73 | 4,226.75 | 4,518.61 |
| Capital Expenditure | -629 | -744 | -623 | -637 | -1,040 | -900.80 | -963 | -1,029.50 | -1,100.59 | -1,176.59 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,944 | 1,773 | 1,657 | 2,994 | 2,000 | 2,558.66 | 2,735.34 | 2,924.23 | 3,126.15 | 3,342.02 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,644.10 | 1,632.73 | 1,621.43 | 1,610.22 | 1,599.08 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 11,720.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.65 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,408.86 |
| Terminal Value | 60,333.87 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 41,734.10 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 53,454.97 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,055 |
| Equity Value | 50,399.97 |
| Shares Outstanding | 364.90 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 138.12 |