Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG)
$3.1
-0.09 (-2.82%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 406.62 | 480.17 | 511.30 | 593.39 | 631.56 | 705.86 | 788.90 | 881.71 | 985.44 | 1,101.37 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 7.57 | 95.43 | 119.66 | 170.21 | -0.27 | 104.15 | 116.41 | 130.10 | 145.41 | 162.52 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -0.38 | -2.28 | -4.98 | -0.75 | -2.64 | -2.95 | -3.30 | -3.68 | -4.12 | -4.60 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 7.18 | 93.15 | 114.67 | 169.46 | -2.91 | 101.20 | 113.11 | 126.42 | 141.29 | 157.91 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 3.1 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.889 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 27.99 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 1.72 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.49% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.086 |
Total Debt | 120.76 |
Total Equity | 86.77 |
Total Capital | 207.52 |
Debt Weighting | 58.19 |
Equity Weighting | 41.81 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 406.62 | 480.17 | 511.30 | 593.39 | 631.56 | 705.86 | 788.90 | 881.71 | 985.44 | 1,101.37 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 7.57 | 95.43 | 119.66 | 170.21 | -0.27 | 104.15 | 116.41 | 130.10 | 145.41 | 162.52 |
Capital Expenditure | -0.38 | -2.28 | -4.98 | -0.75 | -2.64 | -2.95 | -3.30 | -3.68 | -4.12 | -4.60 |
Free Cash Flow | 7.18 | 93.15 | 114.67 | 169.46 | -2.91 | 101.20 | 113.11 | 126.42 | 141.29 | 157.91 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 68.43 | 71.65 | 75.02 | 78.55 | 82.25 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 520.85 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 6.74 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 161.07 |
Terminal Value | 3,398.12 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,452.47 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,973.32 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -238.58 |
Equity Value | 3,211.90 |
Shares Outstanding | 27.99 |
Equity Value Per Share | 114.76 |