Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Mercer International Inc. (MERC)

$12.47

+0.13 (+1.05%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 31.17 | 12.47 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,169.141,457.721,624.411,423.141,803.252,030.632,286.682,575.012,899.703,265.33
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 141.93236.67244.2841.56182.21229.21258.11290.66327.31368.58
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -59.69-87.61-132.66-79.16-160.82-137.12-154.41-173.88-195.81-220.50
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 82.23149.06111.63-37.6021.3992.09103.70116.78131.50148.08

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 12.47
Beta 1.522
Diluted Shares Outstanding 66.04
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 34.38
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.691
Total Debt 1,255.78
Total Equity 823.48
Total Capital 2,079.26
Debt Weighting 60.40
Equity Weighting 39.60
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,169.141,457.721,624.411,423.141,803.252,030.632,286.682,575.012,899.703,265.33
Operating Cash Flow 141.93236.67244.2841.56182.21229.21258.11290.66327.31368.58
Capital Expenditure -59.69-87.61-132.66-79.16-160.82-137.12-154.41-173.88-195.81-220.50
Free Cash Flow 82.23149.06111.63-37.6021.3992.09103.70116.78131.50148.08
WACC
PV LFCF 86.5191.5196.81102.41108.34
SUM PV LFCF 485.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.45
Free cash flow (t + 1) 151.04
Terminal Value 3,394.23
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,483.21

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,968.79
Net Debt 910.17
Equity Value 2,058.62
Shares Outstanding 66.04
Equity Value Per Share 31.17