Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH)
$19.76
+3.10 (+18.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 452.31 | 526.34 | 542.69 | 528.93 | 686.90 | 767.27 | 857.05 | 957.33 | 1,069.35 | 1,194.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 100.54 | 164.70 | 206.12 | 127.42 | 243.49 | 231.78 | 258.90 | 289.19 | 323.03 | 360.82 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -24.43 | -20.52 | -10.45 | -8.26 | -363.39 | -100.81 | -112.60 | -125.78 | -140.49 | -156.93 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 76.11 | 144.19 | 195.66 | 119.16 | -119.90 | 130.97 | 146.29 | 163.41 | 182.53 | 203.89 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 19.76 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.048 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 67.56 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -1.24 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 7.833 |
Total Debt | 20.95 |
Total Equity | 1,335.06 |
Total Capital | 1,356.01 |
Debt Weighting | 1.55 |
Equity Weighting | 98.45 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 452.31 | 526.34 | 542.69 | 528.93 | 686.90 | 767.27 | 857.05 | 957.33 | 1,069.35 | 1,194.47 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 100.54 | 164.70 | 206.12 | 127.42 | 243.49 | 231.78 | 258.90 | 289.19 | 323.03 | 360.82 |
Capital Expenditure | -24.43 | -20.52 | -10.45 | -8.26 | -363.39 | -100.81 | -112.60 | -125.78 | -140.49 | -156.93 |
Free Cash Flow | 76.11 | 144.19 | 195.66 | 119.16 | -119.90 | 130.97 | 146.29 | 163.41 | 182.53 | 203.89 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 121.50 | 125.91 | 130.48 | 135.22 | 140.12 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 653.24 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 7.79 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 207.97 |
Terminal Value | 3,591.86 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,468.47 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 3,121.70 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -523.78 |
Equity Value | 3,645.48 |
Shares Outstanding | 67.56 |
Equity Value Per Share | 53.96 |