Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH)

$19.76

+3.10 (+18.61%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 53.96 | 19.76 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 452.31526.34542.69528.93686.90767.27857.05957.331,069.351,194.47
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 100.54164.70206.12127.42243.49231.78258.90289.19323.03360.82
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -24.43-20.52-10.45-8.26-363.39-100.81-112.60-125.78-140.49-156.93
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 76.11144.19195.66119.16-119.90130.97146.29163.41182.53203.89

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.76
Beta 1.048
Diluted Shares Outstanding 67.56
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -1.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.833
Total Debt 20.95
Total Equity 1,335.06
Total Capital 1,356.01
Debt Weighting 1.55
Equity Weighting 98.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 452.31526.34542.69528.93686.90767.27857.05957.331,069.351,194.47
Operating Cash Flow 100.54164.70206.12127.42243.49231.78258.90289.19323.03360.82
Capital Expenditure -24.43-20.52-10.45-8.26-363.39-100.81-112.60-125.78-140.49-156.93
Free Cash Flow 76.11144.19195.66119.16-119.90130.97146.29163.41182.53203.89
WACC
PV LFCF 121.50125.91130.48135.22140.12
SUM PV LFCF 653.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.79
Free cash flow (t + 1) 207.97
Terminal Value 3,591.86
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,468.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,121.70
Net Debt -523.78
Equity Value 3,645.48
Shares Outstanding 67.56
Equity Value Per Share 53.96