Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH)

$19.76

+3.10 (+18.61%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 53.96 | 19.76 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	452.31	526.34	542.69	528.93	686.90	767.27	857.05	957.33	1,069.35	1,194.47
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	100.54	164.70	206.12	127.42	243.49	231.78	258.90	289.19	323.03	360.82
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-24.43	-20.52	-10.45	-8.26	-363.39	-100.81	-112.60	-125.78	-140.49	-156.93
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	76.11	144.19	195.66	119.16	-119.90	130.97	146.29	163.41	182.53	203.89

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 19.76
Beta	1.048
Diluted Shares Outstanding	67.56
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-1.24
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	7.833
Total Debt	20.95
Total Equity	1,335.06
Total Capital	1,356.01
Debt Weighting	1.55
Equity Weighting	98.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	452.31	526.34	542.69	528.93	686.90	767.27	857.05	957.33	1,069.35	1,194.47
Operating Cash Flow	100.54	164.70	206.12	127.42	243.49	231.78	258.90	289.19	323.03	360.82
Capital Expenditure	-24.43	-20.52	-10.45	-8.26	-363.39	-100.81	-112.60	-125.78	-140.49	-156.93
Free Cash Flow	76.11	144.19	195.66	119.16	-119.90	130.97	146.29	163.41	182.53	203.89
WACC
PV LFCF						121.50	125.91	130.48	135.22	140.12
SUM PV LFCF										653.24

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.79
Free cash flow (t + 1)	207.97
Terminal Value	3,591.86
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,468.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,121.70
Net Debt	-523.78
Equity Value	3,645.48
Shares Outstanding	67.56
Equity Value Per Share	53.96