Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

NuStar Energy L.P. (NS)

$16.92

-0.27 (-1.57%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -10.36 | 16.92 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,814.02	1,961.76	1,498.02	1,481.56	1,618.50	1,588.76	1,559.56	1,530.90	1,502.77	1,475.16
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	406.80	544.21	508.76	526	501.48	478.58	469.79	461.15	452.68	444.36
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-347.73	-465.13	-546.30	-208.72	-179.87	-332.21	-326.10	-320.11	-314.23	-308.45
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	59.06	79.07	-37.54	317.27	321.61	146.38	143.69	141.05	138.45	135.91

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 16.92
Beta	1.932
Diluted Shares Outstanding	109.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	14.92
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.637
Total Debt	3,197.75
Total Equity	1,854.19
Total Capital	5,051.94
Debt Weighting	63.30
Equity Weighting	36.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,814.02	1,961.76	1,498.02	1,481.56	1,618.50	1,588.76	1,559.56	1,530.90	1,502.77	1,475.16
Operating Cash Flow	406.80	544.21	508.76	526	501.48	478.58	469.79	461.15	452.68	444.36
Capital Expenditure	-347.73	-465.13	-546.30	-208.72	-179.87	-332.21	-326.10	-320.11	-314.23	-308.45
Free Cash Flow	59.06	79.07	-37.54	317.27	321.61	146.38	143.69	141.05	138.45	135.91
WACC
PV LFCF						135.23	122.64	111.22	100.87	91.48
SUM PV LFCF										561.44

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.24
Free cash flow (t + 1)	138.63
Terminal Value	2,221.60
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,495.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,056.74
Net Debt	3,192.11
Equity Value	-1,135.37
Shares Outstanding	109.59
Equity Value Per Share	-10.36