Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

NuStar Energy L.P. (NS)

$13.54

-1.05 (-7.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -9.62 | 13.54 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,814.021,961.761,498.021,481.561,618.501,588.761,559.561,530.901,502.771,475.16
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 406.80544.21508.76526501.48478.58469.79461.15452.68444.36
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -347.73-465.13-546.30-208.72-179.87-332.21-326.10-320.11-314.23-308.45
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 59.0679.07-37.54317.27321.61146.38143.69141.05138.45135.91

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.54
Beta 1.969
Diluted Shares Outstanding 109.59
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.69%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.990
Total Debt 3,197.75
Total Equity 1,483.79
Total Capital 4,681.54
Debt Weighting 68.31
Equity Weighting 31.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,814.021,961.761,498.021,481.561,618.501,588.761,559.561,530.901,502.771,475.16
Operating Cash Flow 406.80544.21508.76526501.48478.58469.79461.15452.68444.36
Capital Expenditure -347.73-465.13-546.30-208.72-179.87-332.21-326.10-320.11-314.23-308.45
Free Cash Flow 59.0679.07-37.54317.27321.61146.38143.69141.05138.45135.91
WACC
PV LFCF 135.53123.19111.97101.7792.50
SUM PV LFCF 564.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 138.63
Terminal Value 2,310.46
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,572.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,137.41
Net Debt 3,192.11
Equity Value -1,054.70
Shares Outstanding 109.59
Equity Value Per Share -9.62