Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Novartis AG (NVS)

$83.59

+1.08 (+1.31%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 138.12 | 83.59 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 53,16648,67749,89852,87751,82851,575.5151,324.2551,074.2250,825.4050,577.80
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 14,27213,62513,65015,07114,23614,251.3914,181.9614,112.8714,044.1213,975.70
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,355-2,257-2,585-2,971-2,671-2,774.76-2,761.24-2,747.79-2,734.40-2,721.08
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 10,91711,36811,06512,10011,56511,476.6311,420.7211,365.0811,309.7211,254.62

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 83.59
Beta 0.457
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,260
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.92
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.49%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.538
Total Debt 27,909
Total Equity 188,913.40
Total Capital 216,822.40
Debt Weighting 12.87
Equity Weighting 87.13
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 53,16648,67749,89852,87751,82851,575.5151,324.2551,074.2250,825.4050,577.80
Operating Cash Flow 14,27213,62513,65015,07114,23614,251.3914,181.9614,112.8714,044.1213,975.70
Capital Expenditure -3,355-2,257-2,585-2,971-2,671-2,774.76-2,761.24-2,747.79-2,734.40-2,721.08
Free Cash Flow 10,91711,36811,06512,10011,56511,476.6311,420.7211,365.0811,309.7211,254.62
WACC
PV LFCF 10,914.5310,329.409,775.639,251.558,755.57
SUM PV LFCF 49,026.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,479.71
Terminal Value 364,435.29
Present Value of Terminal Value 283,513.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 332,540.38
Net Debt 20,392
Equity Value 312,148.38
Shares Outstanding 2,260
Equity Value Per Share 138.12