Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
The Progressive Corporation (PGR)
$134.46
-0.45 (-0.33%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 26,816.10 | 31,954.70 | 38,997.70 | 42,638.10 | 47,676.50 | 55,108.61 | 63,699.29 | 73,629.14 | 85,106.91 | 98,373.91 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,756.80 | 6,284.80 | 6,261.60 | 6,905.60 | 7,761.70 | 9,060.90 | 10,473.37 | 12,106.02 | 13,993.18 | 16,174.53 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -155.70 | -266 | -363.50 | -223.50 | -243.50 | -372.54 | -430.62 | -497.74 | -575.33 | -665.02 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3,601.10 | 6,018.80 | 5,898.10 | 6,682.10 | 7,518.20 | 8,688.35 | 10,042.75 | 11,608.28 | 13,417.85 | 15,509.51 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 134.46 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.481 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 584.70 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.41 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.55% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.818 |
| Total Debt | 4,898.80 |
| Total Equity | 78,618.76 |
| Total Capital | 83,517.56 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.87 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.13 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 26,816.10 | 31,954.70 | 38,997.70 | 42,638.10 | 47,676.50 | 55,108.61 | 63,699.29 | 73,629.14 | 85,106.91 | 98,373.91 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,756.80 | 6,284.80 | 6,261.60 | 6,905.60 | 7,761.70 | 9,060.90 | 10,473.37 | 12,106.02 | 13,993.18 | 16,174.53 |
| Capital Expenditure | -155.70 | -266 | -363.50 | -223.50 | -243.50 | -372.54 | -430.62 | -497.74 | -575.33 | -665.02 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,601.10 | 6,018.80 | 5,898.10 | 6,682.10 | 7,518.20 | 8,688.35 | 10,042.75 | 11,608.28 | 13,417.85 | 15,509.51 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 7,361.38 | 8,051.59 | 8,806.51 | 9,632.21 | 10,535.33 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 49,572.59 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.68 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 15,819.70 |
| Terminal Value | 429,883.06 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 326,126.67 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 375,699.25 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 4,711.70 |
| Equity Value | 370,987.55 |
| Shares Outstanding | 584.70 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 634.49 |