Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT)

$153.03

-3.31 (-2.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 49.01 | 153.03 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,2596,7647,8809,66811,72714,339.3117,533.5421,439.3226,215.1532,054.84
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 34457325936146643.13786.40961.581,175.781,437.69
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -125-135-78-85-25-185.12-226.36-276.78-338.44-413.83
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 21943818127621458.01560.04684.80837.341,023.87

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 153.03
Beta 1.765
Diluted Shares Outstanding 195.85
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -16.22
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.45%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.028
Total Debt 1,683
Total Equity 29,970.37
Total Capital 31,653.37
Debt Weighting 5.32
Equity Weighting 94.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 5,2596,7647,8809,66811,72714,339.3117,533.5421,439.3226,215.1532,054.84
Operating Cash Flow 34457325936146643.13786.40961.581,175.781,437.69
Capital Expenditure -125-135-78-85-25-185.12-226.36-276.78-338.44-413.83
Free Cash Flow 21943818127621458.01560.04684.80837.341,023.87
WACC
PV LFCF 237.46260.25285.22312.59342.59
SUM PV LFCF 2,486.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,044.34
Terminal Value 10,912.69
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,312.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,798.56
Net Debt -800
Equity Value 9,598.56
Shares Outstanding 195.85
Equity Value Per Share 49.01