Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT)
$153.03
-3.31 (-2.12%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,259 | 6,764 | 7,880 | 9,668 | 11,727 | 14,339.31 | 17,533.54 | 21,439.32 | 26,215.15 | 32,054.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 344 | 573 | 259 | 361 | 46 | 643.13 | 786.40 | 961.58 | 1,175.78 | 1,437.69 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -125 | -135 | -78 | -85 | -25 | -185.12 | -226.36 | -276.78 | -338.44 | -413.83 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 219 | 438 | 181 | 276 | 21 | 458.01 | 560.04 | 684.80 | 837.34 | 1,023.87 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 153.03 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.765 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 195.85 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | -16.22 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.45% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 12.028 |
Total Debt | 1,683 |
Total Equity | 29,970.37 |
Total Capital | 31,653.37 |
Debt Weighting | 5.32 |
Equity Weighting | 94.68 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,259 | 6,764 | 7,880 | 9,668 | 11,727 | 14,339.31 | 17,533.54 | 21,439.32 | 26,215.15 | 32,054.84 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 344 | 573 | 259 | 361 | 46 | 643.13 | 786.40 | 961.58 | 1,175.78 | 1,437.69 |
Capital Expenditure | -125 | -135 | -78 | -85 | -25 | -185.12 | -226.36 | -276.78 | -338.44 | -413.83 |
Free Cash Flow | 219 | 438 | 181 | 276 | 21 | 458.01 | 560.04 | 684.80 | 837.34 | 1,023.87 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 237.46 | 260.25 | 285.22 | 312.59 | 342.59 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 2,486.16 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.57 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,044.34 |
Terminal Value | 10,912.69 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,312.40 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 8,798.56 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -800 |
Equity Value | 9,598.56 |
Shares Outstanding | 195.85 |
Equity Value Per Share | 49.01 |