Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
TAL Education Group (TAL)
$6.35
-0.43 (-6.34%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,715.02 | 2,562.98 | 3,273.31 | 4,495.75 | 4,390.91 | 5,622.25 | 7,198.90 | 9,217.70 | 11,802.62 | 15,112.43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 685.29 | 194.36 | 855.85 | 954.73 | -939.18 | 826.87 | 1,058.74 | 1,355.65 | 1,735.81 | 2,222.59 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -128.42 | -355.01 | -188.06 | -245.74 | -246.42 | -429.12 | -549.46 | -703.55 | -900.85 | -1,153.47 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 556.87 | -160.65 | 667.79 | 708.99 | -1,185.60 | 397.74 | 509.28 | 652.10 | 834.97 | 1,069.12 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 6.35 |
|---|---|
| Beta | -0.135 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 644.54 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -46.01 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.25% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 2.973 |
| Total Debt | 242.09 |
| Total Equity | 4,092.83 |
| Total Capital | 4,334.93 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.58 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.42 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,715.02 | 2,562.98 | 3,273.31 | 4,495.75 | 4,390.91 | 5,622.25 | 7,198.90 | 9,217.70 | 11,802.62 | 15,112.43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 685.29 | 194.36 | 855.85 | 954.73 | -939.18 | 826.87 | 1,058.74 | 1,355.65 | 1,735.81 | 2,222.59 |
| Capital Expenditure | -128.42 | -355.01 | -188.06 | -245.74 | -246.42 | -429.12 | -549.46 | -703.55 | -900.85 | -1,153.47 |
| Free Cash Flow | 556.87 | -160.65 | 667.79 | 708.99 | -1,185.60 | 397.74 | 509.28 | 652.10 | 834.97 | 1,069.12 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 333.30 | 414.37 | 515.17 | 640.49 | 796.30 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 3,128.09 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 2.99 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,090.50 |
| Terminal Value | 110,151.40 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 95,063.71 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 98,191.80 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -1,396.10 |
| Equity Value | 99,587.89 |
| Shares Outstanding | 644.54 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 154.51 |