Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

TAL Education Group (TAL)

$14.21

+0.81 (+6.04%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 2.30 | 14.21 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,562.983,273.314,495.754,390.911,019.77983.96949.41916.07883.90852.86
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 194.36855.85954.73-939.187.3667.5065.1362.8460.6358.50
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -355.01-188.06-245.74-246.42-110.33-81.66-78.79-76.02-73.35-70.78
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -160.65667.79708.99-1,185.60-102.97-14.16-13.66-13.18-12.72-12.27

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.21
Beta 0.095
Diluted Shares Outstanding 637.79
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -18.24
After-tax Cost of Debt 15.77%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.733
Total Debt 157.72
Total Equity 9,062.99
Total Capital 9,220.71
Debt Weighting 1.71
Equity Weighting 98.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,562.983,273.314,495.754,390.911,019.77983.96949.41916.07883.90852.86
Operating Cash Flow 194.36855.85954.73-939.187.3667.5065.1362.8460.6358.50
Capital Expenditure -355.01-188.06-245.74-246.42-110.33-81.66-78.79-76.02-73.35-70.78
Free Cash Flow -160.65667.79708.99-1,185.60-102.97-14.16-13.66-13.18-12.72-12.27
WACC
PV LFCF -13.50-12.41-11.41-10.50-9.65
SUM PV LFCF -57.47

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) -12.52
Terminal Value -428.72
Present Value of Terminal Value -337.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -394.67
Net Debt -1,864.20
Equity Value 1,469.54
Shares Outstanding 637.79
Equity Value Per Share 2.30