Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. (XIN)

$0.5573

-0.00 (-0.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -189.03 | 0.5573 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Revenue 1,164.321,561.621,976.912,217.552,482.633,009.213,647.494,421.145,358.896,495.54
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow -4.54-159.88139.71-22.90272.2638.3646.4956.3568.3182.80
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure 0.010.560.430.331.110.710.861.041.261.53
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -4.53-159.32140.14-22.57273.3739.0747.3557.4069.5784.33

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.5,573
Beta 1.231
Diluted Shares Outstanding 57.05
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 70.73
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.96%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.507
Total Debt 3,226.41
Total Equity 31.79
Total Capital 3,258.21
Debt Weighting 99.02
Equity Weighting 0.98
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
Revenue 1,164.321,561.621,976.912,217.552,482.633,009.213,647.494,421.145,358.896,495.54
Operating Cash Flow -4.54-159.88139.71-22.90272.2638.3646.4956.3568.3182.80
Capital Expenditure 0.010.560.430.331.110.710.861.041.261.53
Free Cash Flow -4.53-159.32140.14-22.57273.3739.0747.3557.4069.5784.33
WACC
PV LFCF 38.6646.3855.6466.7580.08
SUM PV LFCF 287.51

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 86.01
Terminal Value -8,959.69
Present Value of Terminal Value -8,507.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -8,220.46
Net Debt 2,563.81
Equity Value -10,784.27
Shares Outstanding 57.05
Equity Value Per Share -189.03