Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
$154.5
+3.68 (+2.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 265,595 | 260,174 | 274,515 | 365,817 | 394,328 | 438,220.82 | 486,999.37 | 541,207.49 | 601,449.53 | 668,397.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 87,046 | 81,860 | 81,020 | 123,136 | 133,138 | 141,260.66 | 156,984.44 | 174,458.45 | 193,877.50 | 215,458.09 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 76,143 | 69,313 | 69,964 | 111,852 | 122,034 | 124,734.77 | 138,619.05 | 154,048.80 | 171,196.04 | 190,251.94 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 10,903 | 12,547 | 11,056 | 11,284 | 11,104 | 16,525.89 | 18,365.39 | 20,409.65 | 22,681.46 | 25,206.15 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Total Cash | 66,301 | 100,557 | 90,943 | 62,639 | 48,304 | 110,531.96 | 122,835.32 | 136,508.17 | 151,702.95 | 168,589.08 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 48,995 | 45,804 | 37,445 | 51,506 | 60,932 | 69,435.78 | 77,164.71 | 85,753.95 | 95,299.26 | 105,907.06 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 3,956 | 4,106 | 4,061 | 6,580 | 4,946 | 6,660.95 | 7,402.39 | 8,226.35 | 9,142.03 | 10,159.63 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 55,888 | 46,236 | 42,296 | 54,763 | 64,115 | 74,892.50 | 83,228.82 | 92,493.06 | 102,788.50 | 114,229.93 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -13,313 | -10,495 | -7,309 | -11,085 | -10,708 | -15,297.92 | -17,000.74 | -18,893.10 | -20,996.10 | -23,333.18 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 154.5 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.272 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 16,325.82 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 16.20 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.04% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.538 |
Total Debt | 120,069 |
Total Equity | 2,522,339.04 |
Total Capital | 2,642,408.04 |
Debt Weighting | 4.54 |
Equity Weighting | 95.46 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 265,595 | 260,174 | 274,515 | 365,817 | 394,328 | 438,220.82 | 486,999.37 | 541,207.49 | 601,449.53 | 668,397.15 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 87,046 | 81,860 | 81,020 | 123,136 | 133,138 | 141,260.66 | 156,984.44 | 174,458.45 | 193,877.50 | 215,458.09 |
EBIT | 76,143 | 69,313 | 69,964 | 111,852 | 122,034 | 124,734.77 | 138,619.05 | 154,048.80 | 171,196.04 | 190,251.94 |
Tax Rate | 18.34% | 15.94% | 14.43% | 13.30% | 16.20% | 15.64% | 15.64% | 15.64% | 15.64% | 15.64% |
EBIAT | 62,176.71 | 58,261.85 | 59,869.48 | 96,973.16 | 102,259.05 | 105,221.03 | 116,933.23 | 129,949.12 | 144,413.82 | 160,488.58 |
Depreciation | 10,903 | 12,547 | 11,056 | 11,284 | 11,104 | 16,525.89 | 18,365.39 | 20,409.65 | 22,681.46 | 25,206.15 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 3,191 | 8,359 | -14,061 | -9,426 | -8,503.78 | -7,728.93 | -8,589.24 | -9,545.31 | -10,607.80 |
Inventories | - | -150 | 45 | -2,519 | 1,634 | -1,714.95 | -741.43 | -823.96 | -915.68 | -1,017.60 |
Accounts Payable | - | -9,652 | -3,940 | 12,467 | 9,352 | 10,777.50 | 8,336.32 | 9,264.24 | 10,295.44 | 11,441.43 |
Capital Expenditure | -13,313 | -10,495 | -7,309 | -11,085 | -10,708 | -15,297.92 | -17,000.74 | -18,893.10 | -20,996.10 | -23,333.18 |
UFCF | 59,766.71 | 53,702.85 | 68,080.48 | 93,059.15 | 104,215.05 | 107,007.77 | 118,163.85 | 131,316.72 | 145,933.64 | 162,177.57 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 97,992.47 | 99,092.17 | 100,844.47 | 102,627.76 | 104,442.58 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 504,999.45 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.20 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 165,421.13 |
Terminal Value | 2,297,515.63 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,479,603.27 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,984,602.73 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 96,423 |
Equity Value | 1,888,179.73 |
Shares Outstanding | 16,325.82 |
Equity Value Per Share | 115.66 |