Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

$ 156.81
-5.13 (-3.17%)
Stock DCF: 389.83 | 156.81 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 229,234265,595260,174274,515365,817413,914.93468,336.82529,914.15599,587.72678,422.03
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 76,56987,04681,86081,020123,136133,126.67150,630.28170,435.28192,844.26218,199.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 66,41276,14369,31369,964111,852116,180.52131,456.03148,739.99168,296.45190,424.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10,15710,90312,54711,05611,28416,946.1519,174.2521,695.2924,547.8127,775.38
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 74,18166,301100,55790,94362,639121,049.53136,965.23154,973.54175,349.59198,404.71
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 35,67348,99545,80437,44551,50665,675.3674,310.4184,080.8195,135.82107,644.36
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4,8553,9564,1064,0616,5807,006.457,927.668,97010,149.3811,483.83
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 49,04955,88846,23642,29654,76374,991.6684,851.6396,007.99108,631.20122,914.13
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -12,795-13,313-10,495-7,309-11,085-16,822.09-19,033.87-21,536.46-24,368.10-27,572.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 156.81
Beta 1.206
Diluted Shares Outstanding 16,864.92
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 13.30
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.84%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.173
Total Debt 124,719
Total Equity 2,644,587.95
Total Capital 2,769,306.95
Debt Weighting 4.50
Equity Weighting 95.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 229,234265,595260,174274,515365,817413,914.93468,336.82529,914.15599,587.72678,422.03
EBITDA 76,56987,04681,86081,020123,136133,126.67150,630.28170,435.28192,844.26218,199.59
EBIT 66,41276,14369,31369,964111,852116,180.52131,456.03148,739.99168,296.45190,424.21
Tax Rate 24.56%18.34%15.94%14.43%13.30%17.31%17.31%17.31%17.31%17.31%
EBIAT 50,103.5562,176.7158,261.8559,869.4896,973.1696,064.35108,694.97122,986.28139,156.62157,453.05
Depreciation 10,15710,90312,54711,05611,28416,946.1519,174.2521,695.2924,547.8127,775.38
Accounts Receivable --13,3223,1918,359-14,061-14,169.36-8,635.05-9,770.40-11,055.02-12,508.54
Inventories -899-15045-2,519-426.45-921.21-1,042.34-1,179.38-1,334.45
Accounts Payable -6,839-9,652-3,94012,46720,228.669,859.9711,156.3612,623.2114,282.92
Capital Expenditure -12,795-13,313-10,495-7,309-11,085-16,822.09-19,033.87-21,536.46-24,368.10-27,572.03
UFCF 47,465.5554,182.7153,702.8568,080.4893,059.15101,821.26109,139.05123,488.74139,725.15158,096.33
WACC
PV UFCF 95,222.3595,451.12101,001.69106,875.04113,089.93
SUM PV UFCF 511,640.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 166,001.15
Terminal Value 8,601,095.63
Present Value of Terminal Value 6,152,561.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,664,201.34
Net Debt 89,779
Equity Value 6,574,422.34
Shares Outstanding 16,864.92
Equity Value Per Share 389.83