Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
$169.24
+4.32 (+2.62%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 229,234 | 265,595 | 260,174 | 274,515 | 365,817 | 413,914.93 | 468,336.82 | 529,914.15 | 599,587.72 | 678,422.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 76,569 | 87,046 | 81,860 | 81,020 | 123,136 | 133,126.67 | 150,630.28 | 170,435.28 | 192,844.26 | 218,199.59 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 66,412 | 76,143 | 69,313 | 69,964 | 111,852 | 116,180.52 | 131,456.03 | 148,739.99 | 168,296.45 | 190,424.21 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 10,157 | 10,903 | 12,547 | 11,056 | 11,284 | 16,946.15 | 19,174.25 | 21,695.29 | 24,547.81 | 27,775.38 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 74,181 | 66,301 | 100,557 | 90,943 | 62,639 | 121,049.53 | 136,965.23 | 154,973.54 | 175,349.59 | 198,404.71 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 35,673 | 48,995 | 45,804 | 37,445 | 51,506 | 65,675.36 | 74,310.41 | 84,080.81 | 95,135.82 | 107,644.36 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 4,855 | 3,956 | 4,106 | 4,061 | 6,580 | 7,006.45 | 7,927.66 | 8,970 | 10,149.38 | 11,483.83 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 49,049 | 55,888 | 46,236 | 42,296 | 54,763 | 74,991.66 | 84,851.63 | 96,007.99 | 108,631.20 | 122,914.13 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -12,795 | -13,313 | -10,495 | -7,309 | -11,085 | -16,822.09 | -19,033.87 | -21,536.46 | -24,368.10 | -27,572.03 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 169.24 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.230 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 16,864.92 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 13.30 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.84% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.592 |
Total Debt | 124,719 |
Total Equity | 2,854,218.89 |
Total Capital | 2,978,937.89 |
Debt Weighting | 4.19 |
Equity Weighting | 95.81 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 229,234 | 265,595 | 260,174 | 274,515 | 365,817 | 413,914.93 | 468,336.82 | 529,914.15 | 599,587.72 | 678,422.03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 76,569 | 87,046 | 81,860 | 81,020 | 123,136 | 133,126.67 | 150,630.28 | 170,435.28 | 192,844.26 | 218,199.59 |
EBIT | 66,412 | 76,143 | 69,313 | 69,964 | 111,852 | 116,180.52 | 131,456.03 | 148,739.99 | 168,296.45 | 190,424.21 |
Tax Rate | 24.56% | 18.34% | 15.94% | 14.43% | 13.30% | 17.31% | 17.31% | 17.31% | 17.31% | 17.31% |
EBIAT | 50,103.55 | 62,176.71 | 58,261.85 | 59,869.48 | 96,973.16 | 96,064.35 | 108,694.97 | 122,986.28 | 139,156.62 | 157,453.05 |
Depreciation | 10,157 | 10,903 | 12,547 | 11,056 | 11,284 | 16,946.15 | 19,174.25 | 21,695.29 | 24,547.81 | 27,775.38 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -13,322 | 3,191 | 8,359 | -14,061 | -14,169.36 | -8,635.05 | -9,770.40 | -11,055.02 | -12,508.54 |
Inventories | - | 899 | -150 | 45 | -2,519 | -426.45 | -921.21 | -1,042.34 | -1,179.38 | -1,334.45 |
Accounts Payable | - | 6,839 | -9,652 | -3,940 | 12,467 | 20,228.66 | 9,859.97 | 11,156.36 | 12,623.21 | 14,282.92 |
Capital Expenditure | -12,795 | -13,313 | -10,495 | -7,309 | -11,085 | -16,822.09 | -19,033.87 | -21,536.46 | -24,368.10 | -27,572.03 |
UFCF | 47,465.55 | 54,182.71 | 53,702.85 | 68,080.48 | 93,059.15 | 101,821.26 | 109,139.05 | 123,488.74 | 139,725.15 | 158,096.33 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | 94,009.11 | 93,034.29 | 97,190.03 | 101,531.39 | 106,066.69 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | 491,831.50 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.31 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 161,258.26 |
Terminal Value | 2,555,598.35 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,714,548.68 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,206,380.18 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 89,779 |
Equity Value | 2,116,601.18 |
Shares Outstanding | 16,864.92 |
Equity Value Per Share | 125.50 |