Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Apple Inc. (AAPL)

$154.5

+3.68 (+2.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 115.66 | 154.5 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 265,595260,174274,515365,817394,328438,220.82486,999.37541,207.49601,449.53668,397.15
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 87,04681,86081,020123,136133,138141,260.66156,984.44174,458.45193,877.50215,458.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 76,14369,31369,964111,852122,034124,734.77138,619.05154,048.80171,196.04190,251.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 10,90312,54711,05611,28411,10416,525.8918,365.3920,409.6522,681.4625,206.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Total Cash 66,301100,55790,94362,63948,304110,531.96122,835.32136,508.17151,702.95168,589.08
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 48,99545,80437,44551,50660,93269,435.7877,164.7185,753.9595,299.26105,907.06
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,9564,1064,0616,5804,9466,660.957,402.398,226.359,142.0310,159.63
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 55,88846,23642,29654,76364,11574,892.5083,228.8292,493.06102,788.50114,229.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -13,313-10,495-7,309-11,085-10,708-15,297.92-17,000.74-18,893.10-20,996.10-23,333.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 154.5
Beta 1.272
Diluted Shares Outstanding 16,325.82
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.20
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.538
Total Debt 120,069
Total Equity 2,522,339.04
Total Capital 2,642,408.04
Debt Weighting 4.54
Equity Weighting 95.46
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 265,595260,174274,515365,817394,328438,220.82486,999.37541,207.49601,449.53668,397.15
EBITDA 87,04681,86081,020123,136133,138141,260.66156,984.44174,458.45193,877.50215,458.09
EBIT 76,14369,31369,964111,852122,034124,734.77138,619.05154,048.80171,196.04190,251.94
Tax Rate 18.34%15.94%14.43%13.30%16.20%15.64%15.64%15.64%15.64%15.64%
EBIAT 62,176.7158,261.8559,869.4896,973.16102,259.05105,221.03116,933.23129,949.12144,413.82160,488.58
Depreciation 10,90312,54711,05611,28411,10416,525.8918,365.3920,409.6522,681.4625,206.15
Accounts Receivable -3,1918,359-14,061-9,426-8,503.78-7,728.93-8,589.24-9,545.31-10,607.80
Inventories --15045-2,5191,634-1,714.95-741.43-823.96-915.68-1,017.60
Accounts Payable --9,652-3,94012,4679,35210,777.508,336.329,264.2410,295.4411,441.43
Capital Expenditure -13,313-10,495-7,309-11,085-10,708-15,297.92-17,000.74-18,893.10-20,996.10-23,333.18
UFCF 59,766.7153,702.8568,080.4893,059.15104,215.05107,007.77118,163.85131,316.72145,933.64162,177.57
WACC
PV UFCF 97,992.4799,092.17100,844.47102,627.76104,442.58
SUM PV UFCF 504,999.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.20
Free cash flow (t + 1) 165,421.13
Terminal Value 2,297,515.63
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,479,603.27

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,984,602.73
Net Debt 96,423
Equity Value 1,888,179.73
Shares Outstanding 16,325.82
Equity Value Per Share 115.66