Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNCN)

$24.3016

-0.31 (-1.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 5.70 | 24.3016 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 841229771-173837-297.85105.99-37.7213.42-4.78
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,2981,3272,837408824-574.49204.44-72.7525.89-9.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,2951,3022,793.54417.75776.82-557.70198.46-70.6225.13-8.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 32543.46-9.7547.18-16.795.97-2.130.76-0.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 1,0469218311,017998-98.7235.13-12.504.45-1.58
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -4891,646.37-369.421,787.31-636.02226.33-80.5428.66-10.20
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 299518424219400-141.7550.44-17.956.39-2.27
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure ----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 24.3,016
Beta 1.068
Diluted Shares Outstanding 343.45
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 59.52%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.736
Total Debt 126
Total Equity 8,346.41
Total Capital 8,472.41
Debt Weighting 1.49
Equity Weighting 98.51
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 841229771-173837-297.85105.99-37.7213.42-4.78
EBITDA 1,2981,3272,837408824-574.49204.44-72.7525.89-9.21
EBIT 1,2951,3022,793.54417.75776.82-557.70198.46-70.6225.13-8.94
Tax Rate 0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
EBIAT 1,2951,3022,793.54417.75776.82-557.70198.46-70.6225.13-8.94
Depreciation 32543.46-9.7547.18-16.795.97-2.130.76-0.27
Accounts Receivable ---1,157.372,015.79-2,156.722,423.33-862.36306.88-109.2038.86
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable -219-94-205181-541.75192.19-68.3924.34-8.66
Capital Expenditure ----------
UFCF -----1,307.09-465.73165.73-58.9820.99
WACC
PV UFCF 1,193.80-388.50126.27-41.0413.34
SUM PV UFCF 903.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.49
Free cash flow (t + 1) 21.41
Terminal Value 285.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 181.64

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,085.51
Net Debt -872
Equity Value 1,957.51
Shares Outstanding 343.45
Equity Value Per Share 5.70