Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO)
$47.6
-2.23 (-4.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 988 | 921 | 1,084 | 698 | 723 | 684.84 | 648.70 | 614.46 | 582.03 | 551.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 674 | 554 | 492 | 534 | 216 | 383.70 | 363.45 | 344.27 | 326.10 | 308.89 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 383.70 | 363.45 | 344.27 | 326.10 | 308.89 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 10,922 | 10,291 | 9,786 | 9,547 | 194 | 6,191.26 | 5,864.51 | 5,555 | 5,261.83 | 4,984.13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,394 | 2,033 | 2,363 | 2,173 | 1,610.73 | 1,525.72 | 1,445.20 | 1,368.93 | 1,296.68 | 1,228.25 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 47.6 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.122 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 74.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 33.69 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.21% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.794 |
| Total Debt | 1,675 |
| Total Equity | 3,536.68 |
| Total Capital | 5,211.68 |
| Debt Weighting | 32.14 |
| Equity Weighting | 67.86 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 988 | 921 | 1,084 | 698 | 723 | 684.84 | 648.70 | 614.46 | 582.03 | 551.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 674 | 554 | 492 | 534 | 216 | 383.70 | 363.45 | 344.27 | 326.10 | 308.89 |
| EBIT | - | - | - | - | - | 383.70 | 363.45 | 344.27 | 326.10 | 308.89 |
| Tax Rate | 10.17% | 13.36% | 12.35% | 18.45% | 33.69% | 17.60% | 17.60% | 17.60% | 17.60% | 17.60% |
| EBIAT | - | - | - | - | - | 316.15 | 299.47 | 283.66 | 268.69 | 254.51 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -639 | -330 | 190 | 562.27 | 85.01 | 80.52 | 76.27 | 72.25 | 68.43 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UFCF | - | - | - | - | - | 401.16 | 379.99 | 359.94 | 340.94 | 322.95 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 374.92 | 331.90 | 293.81 | 260.10 | 230.26 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 1,490.99 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.00 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 329.40 |
| Terminal Value | 6,588.09 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 4,697.22 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 6,188.20 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 1,616 |
| Equity Value | 4,572.20 |
| Shares Outstanding | 74.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 61.54 |