Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amyris, Inc. (AMRS)

$2.31

-0.11 (-4.55%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -568.23 | 2.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 143.4463.60152.56173.14341.82508.55756.601,125.661,674.732,491.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -26.64-182.61-166.29-270.67-293.97-668.25-994.21-1,479.16-2,200.66-3,274.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -38-187.53-183.47-282.79-297.92-703.92-1,047.28-1,558.12-2,318.14-3,448.87
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 11.364.9217.1812.133.9535.6753.0778.96117.48174.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 57.0645.350.2730.150.48131.02194.93290.01431.46641.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 33.622628.7551.400.04114.80170.79254.10378.05562.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.419.6927.7742.860.0863.0593.81139.56207.64308.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 15.9226.8451.2341.050.08112.51167.39249.03370.51551.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4.41-12.47-13.08-12.78-45.64-52.88-78.67-117.05-174.14-259.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.31
Beta 1.567
Diluted Shares Outstanding 203.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.19
After-tax Cost of Debt -7,569.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.184
Total Debt 0.34
Total Equity 470.31
Total Capital 470.65
Debt Weighting 0.07
Equity Weighting 99.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 143.4463.60152.56173.14341.82508.55756.601,125.661,674.732,491.62
EBITDA -26.64-182.61-166.29-270.67-293.97-668.25-994.21-1,479.16-2,200.66-3,274.08
EBIT -38-187.53-183.47-282.79-297.92-703.92-1,047.28-1,558.12-2,318.14-3,448.87
Tax Rate -0.41%0.00%-0.26%-2.22%0.19%-0.54%-0.54%-0.54%-0.54%-0.54%
EBIAT -38.16-187.53-183.95-289.07-297.35-707.72-1,052.93-1,566.53-2,330.65-3,467.48
Depreciation 11.364.9217.1812.133.9535.6753.0778.96117.48174.78
Accounts Receivable -7.62-2.75-22.6551.36-114.76-56-83.31-123.95-184.40
Inventories --4.28-18.08-15.0942.79-62.98-30.75-45.76-68.07-101.28
Accounts Payable -10.9224.39-10.19-40.97112.4354.8881.65121.47180.73
Capital Expenditure -4.41-12.47-13.08-12.78-45.64-52.88-78.67-117.05-174.14-259.09
UFCF -31.21-180.83-176.29-337.65-285.85-790.24-1,110.41-1,652.03-2,457.86-3,656.74
WACC
PV UFCF -754.40-1,011.98-1,437.33-2,041.46-2,899.51
SUM PV UFCF -8,144.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.75
Free cash flow (t + 1) -3,729.88
Terminal Value -135,631.91
Present Value of Terminal Value -107,545.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -115,690.06
Net Debt -0.15
Equity Value -115,689.91
Shares Outstanding 203.60
Equity Value Per Share -568.23