Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Amyris, Inc. (AMRS)

$2.31

-0.11 (-4.55%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -568.23 | 2.31 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	143.44	63.60	152.56	173.14	341.82	508.55	756.60	1,125.66	1,674.73	2,491.62
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	-26.64	-182.61	-166.29	-270.67	-293.97	-668.25	-994.21	-1,479.16	-2,200.66	-3,274.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-38	-187.53	-183.47	-282.79	-297.92	-703.92	-1,047.28	-1,558.12	-2,318.14	-3,448.87
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	11.36	4.92	17.18	12.13	3.95	35.67	53.07	78.96	117.48	174.78
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	57.06	45.35	0.27	30.15	0.48	131.02	194.93	290.01	431.46	641.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	33.62	26	28.75	51.40	0.04	114.80	170.79	254.10	378.05	562.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	5.41	9.69	27.77	42.86	0.08	63.05	93.81	139.56	207.64	308.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	15.92	26.84	51.23	41.05	0.08	112.51	167.39	249.03	370.51	551.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4.41	-12.47	-13.08	-12.78	-45.64	-52.88	-78.67	-117.05	-174.14	-259.09
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 2.31
Beta	1.567
Diluted Shares Outstanding	203.60
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.19
After-tax Cost of Debt	-7,569.63%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	10.184
Total Debt	0.34
Total Equity	470.31
Total Capital	470.65
Debt Weighting	0.07
Equity Weighting	99.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	143.44	63.60	152.56	173.14	341.82	508.55	756.60	1,125.66	1,674.73	2,491.62
EBITDA	-26.64	-182.61	-166.29	-270.67	-293.97	-668.25	-994.21	-1,479.16	-2,200.66	-3,274.08
EBIT	-38	-187.53	-183.47	-282.79	-297.92	-703.92	-1,047.28	-1,558.12	-2,318.14	-3,448.87
Tax Rate	-0.41%	0.00%	-0.26%	-2.22%	0.19%	-0.54%	-0.54%	-0.54%	-0.54%	-0.54%
EBIAT	-38.16	-187.53	-183.95	-289.07	-297.35	-707.72	-1,052.93	-1,566.53	-2,330.65	-3,467.48
Depreciation	11.36	4.92	17.18	12.13	3.95	35.67	53.07	78.96	117.48	174.78
Accounts Receivable	-	7.62	-2.75	-22.65	51.36	-114.76	-56	-83.31	-123.95	-184.40
Inventories	-	-4.28	-18.08	-15.09	42.79	-62.98	-30.75	-45.76	-68.07	-101.28
Accounts Payable	-	10.92	24.39	-10.19	-40.97	112.43	54.88	81.65	121.47	180.73
Capital Expenditure	-4.41	-12.47	-13.08	-12.78	-45.64	-52.88	-78.67	-117.05	-174.14	-259.09
UFCF	-31.21	-180.83	-176.29	-337.65	-285.85	-790.24	-1,110.41	-1,652.03	-2,457.86	-3,656.74
WACC
PV UFCF						-754.40	-1,011.98	-1,437.33	-2,041.46	-2,899.51
SUM PV UFCF										-8,144.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.75
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-3,729.88
Terminal Value	-135,631.91
Present Value of Terminal Value	-107,545.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-115,690.06
Net Debt	-0.15
Equity Value	-115,689.91
Shares Outstanding	203.60
Equity Value Per Share	-568.23