Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Amyris, Inc. (AMRS)
$2.27
+0.12 (+5.58%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 143.44 | 63.60 | 152.56 | 173.14 | 341.82 | 508.55 | 756.60 | 1,125.66 | 1,674.73 | 2,491.62 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | -26.64 | -182.61 | -166.29 | -270.67 | -293.97 | -668.25 | -994.21 | -1,479.16 | -2,200.66 | -3,274.08 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | -38 | -187.53 | -183.47 | -282.79 | -297.92 | -703.92 | -1,047.28 | -1,558.12 | -2,318.14 | -3,448.87 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 11.36 | 4.92 | 17.18 | 12.13 | 3.95 | 35.67 | 53.07 | 78.96 | 117.48 | 174.78 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Total Cash | 57.06 | 45.35 | 0.27 | 30.15 | 0.48 | 131.02 | 194.93 | 290.01 | 431.46 | 641.92 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 33.62 | 26 | 28.75 | 51.40 | 0.04 | 114.80 | 170.79 | 254.10 | 378.05 | 562.45 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 5.41 | 9.69 | 27.77 | 42.86 | 0.08 | 63.05 | 93.81 | 139.56 | 207.64 | 308.92 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 15.92 | 26.84 | 51.23 | 41.05 | 0.08 | 112.51 | 167.39 | 249.03 | 370.51 | 551.23 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4.41 | -12.47 | -13.08 | -12.78 | -45.64 | -52.88 | -78.67 | -117.05 | -174.14 | -259.09 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 2.27 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.664 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 203.60 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.19 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -7,569.63% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 10.980 |
Total Debt | 0.34 |
Total Equity | 462.17 |
Total Capital | 462.51 |
Debt Weighting | 0.07 |
Equity Weighting | 99.93 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 143.44 | 63.60 | 152.56 | 173.14 | 341.82 | 508.55 | 756.60 | 1,125.66 | 1,674.73 | 2,491.62 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | -26.64 | -182.61 | -166.29 | -270.67 | -293.97 | -668.25 | -994.21 | -1,479.16 | -2,200.66 | -3,274.08 |
EBIT | -38 | -187.53 | -183.47 | -282.79 | -297.92 | -703.92 | -1,047.28 | -1,558.12 | -2,318.14 | -3,448.87 |
Tax Rate | -0.41% | 0.00% | -0.26% | -2.22% | 0.19% | -0.54% | -0.54% | -0.54% | -0.54% | -0.54% |
EBIAT | -38.16 | -187.53 | -183.95 | -289.07 | -297.35 | -707.72 | -1,052.93 | -1,566.53 | -2,330.65 | -3,467.48 |
Depreciation | 11.36 | 4.92 | 17.18 | 12.13 | 3.95 | 35.67 | 53.07 | 78.96 | 117.48 | 174.78 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 7.62 | -2.75 | -22.65 | 51.36 | -114.76 | -56 | -83.31 | -123.95 | -184.40 |
Inventories | - | -4.28 | -18.08 | -15.09 | 42.79 | -62.98 | -30.75 | -45.76 | -68.07 | -101.28 |
Accounts Payable | - | 10.92 | 24.39 | -10.19 | -40.97 | 112.43 | 54.88 | 81.65 | 121.47 | 180.73 |
Capital Expenditure | -4.41 | -12.47 | -13.08 | -12.78 | -45.64 | -52.88 | -78.67 | -117.05 | -174.14 | -259.09 |
UFCF | -31.21 | -180.83 | -176.29 | -337.65 | -285.85 | -790.24 | -1,110.41 | -1,652.03 | -2,457.86 | -3,656.74 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -749.40 | -998.59 | -1,408.90 | -1,987.79 | -2,804.54 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -7,949.21 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.45 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3,729.88 |
Terminal Value | -108,112.40 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -82,916.81 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -90,866.02 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -0.15 |
Equity Value | -90,865.88 |
Shares Outstanding | 203.60 |
Equity Value Per Share | -446.30 |