Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
A10 Networks, Inc. (ATEN)
$14.7
-0.28 (-1.87%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 232.22 | 212.63 | 225.53 | 250.04 | 280.34 | 294.79 | 309.98 | 325.95 | 342.75 | 360.42 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | -18.53 | -3.62 | 30.44 | 42.29 | 61.76 | 25.21 | 26.51 | 27.88 | 29.32 | 30.83 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -26.41 | -13.65 | 19.14 | 33.39 | 54.38 | 13.83 | 14.54 | 15.29 | 16.08 | 16.90 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 7.88 | 10.03 | 11.30 | 8.91 | 7.38 | 11.39 | 11.98 | 12.59 | 13.24 | 13.92 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Total Cash | 128.37 | 129.92 | 158.13 | 185.04 | 150.99 | 185.34 | 194.89 | 204.94 | 215.50 | 226.60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 53.97 | 53.57 | 51.05 | 61.79 | 72.93 | 71.81 | 75.51 | 79.40 | 83.49 | 87.80 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 17.93 | 22.38 | 20.73 | 22.46 | 19.69 | 25.62 | 26.94 | 28.32 | 29.78 | 31.32 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 8.20 | 7.59 | 4.85 | 6.85 | 6.73 | 8.49 | 8.92 | 9.38 | 9.87 | 10.37 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.80 | -4.34 | -3.56 | -5.17 | -10.80 | -6.34 | -6.66 | -7.01 | -7.37 | -7.75 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 14.7 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.015 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 80.02 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 11.02 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.85% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.348 |
| Total Debt | 21.64 |
| Total Equity | 1,176.28 |
| Total Capital | 1,197.92 |
| Debt Weighting | 1.81 |
| Equity Weighting | 98.19 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 232.22 | 212.63 | 225.53 | 250.04 | 280.34 | 294.79 | 309.98 | 325.95 | 342.75 | 360.42 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -18.53 | -3.62 | 30.44 | 42.29 | 61.76 | 25.21 | 26.51 | 27.88 | 29.32 | 30.83 |
| EBIT | -26.41 | -13.65 | 19.14 | 33.39 | 54.38 | 13.83 | 14.54 | 15.29 | 16.08 | 16.90 |
| Tax Rate | -4.08% | -8.57% | 6.91% | -199.88% | 11.02% | -38.92% | -38.92% | -38.92% | -38.92% | -38.92% |
| EBIAT | -27.48 | -14.81 | 17.82 | 100.12 | 48.39 | 19.21 | 20.20 | 21.24 | 22.33 | 23.48 |
| Depreciation | 7.88 | 10.03 | 11.30 | 8.91 | 7.38 | 11.39 | 11.98 | 12.59 | 13.24 | 13.92 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 0.41 | 2.52 | -10.74 | -11.13 | 1.12 | -3.70 | -3.89 | -4.09 | -4.30 |
| Inventories | - | -4.45 | 1.65 | -1.73 | 2.77 | -5.92 | -1.32 | -1.39 | -1.46 | -1.53 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -0.61 | -2.74 | 2 | -0.13 | 1.76 | 0.44 | 0.46 | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.80 | -4.34 | -3.56 | -5.17 | -10.80 | -6.34 | -6.66 | -7.01 | -7.37 | -7.75 |
| UFCF | -22.40 | -13.78 | 26.98 | 93.38 | 36.48 | 21.22 | 20.93 | 22 | 23.14 | 24.33 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 19.41 | 17.52 | 16.85 | 16.21 | 15.60 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 85.59 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.30 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 24.82 |
| Terminal Value | 339.97 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 217.94 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 303.53 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -46.33 |
| Equity Value | 349.86 |
| Shares Outstanding | 80.02 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 4.37 |