Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ATI Inc. (ATI)

$37.73

-0.03 (-0.08%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -9.48 | 37.73 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,046.60	4,122.50	2,982.10	2,799.80	3,836	3,885	3,934.63	3,984.89	4,035.79	4,087.34
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	490.80	479.20	-1,255.50	229.40	376.70	-2.60	-2.64	-2.67	-2.70	-2.74
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	334.40	328.10	-1,398.80	85.50	233.80	-167.33	-169.47	-171.63	-173.82	-176.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	156.40	151.10	143.30	143.90	142.90	164.73	166.83	168.96	171.12	173.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	382	490.80	645.90	687.70	584	643.29	651.51	659.83	668.26	676.79
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	579	592.60	384.70	523.90	579.20	585.82	593.30	600.88	608.55	616.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,211.10	1,155.30	997.10	1,046.30	1,195.70	1,242.66	1,258.53	1,274.61	1,290.89	1,307.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	498.80	521.20	290.60	375.50	553.30	486.01	492.22	498.51	504.87	511.32
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-139.20	-168.20	-136.50	-152.60	-0.90	-136.53	-138.27	-140.04	-141.83	-143.64
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 37.73
Beta	1.215
Diluted Shares Outstanding	126.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	19.20
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.117
Total Debt	1,748
Total Equity	4,772.85
Total Capital	6,520.85
Debt Weighting	26.81
Equity Weighting	73.19
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	4,046.60	4,122.50	2,982.10	2,799.80	3,836	3,885	3,934.63	3,984.89	4,035.79	4,087.34
EBITDA	490.80	479.20	-1,255.50	229.40	376.70	-2.60	-2.64	-2.67	-2.70	-2.74
EBIT	334.40	328.10	-1,398.80	85.50	233.80	-167.33	-169.47	-171.63	-173.82	-176.04
Tax Rate	10.21%	-6.62%	-6.12%	460.38%	19.20%	95.41%	95.41%	95.41%	95.41%	95.41%
EBIAT	300.24	349.83	-1,484.41	-308.12	188.92	-7.68	-7.78	-7.88	-7.98	-8.08
Depreciation	156.40	151.10	143.30	143.90	142.90	164.73	166.83	168.96	171.12	173.31
Accounts Receivable	-	-13.60	207.90	-139.20	-55.30	-6.62	-7.48	-7.58	-7.68	-7.77
Inventories	-	55.80	158.20	-49.20	-149.40	-46.96	-15.87	-16.08	-16.28	-16.49
Accounts Payable	-	22.40	-230.60	84.90	177.80	-67.29	6.21	6.29	6.37	6.45
Capital Expenditure	-139.20	-168.20	-136.50	-152.60	-0.90	-136.53	-138.27	-140.04	-141.83	-143.64
UFCF	317.44	397.33	-1,342.11	-420.32	304.02	-100.35	3.63	3.68	3.73	3.77
WACC
PV UFCF						-93.12	3.13	2.94	2.76	2.60
SUM PV UFCF										-81.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.76
Free cash flow (t + 1)	3.85
Terminal Value	66.81
Present Value of Terminal Value	45.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-35.71
Net Debt	1,164
Equity Value	-1,199.71
Shares Outstanding	126.50
Equity Value Per Share	-9.48