Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)

$28.44

-0.35 (-1.22%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 156.87 | 28.44 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,808.60	2,702.50	1,876.70	5,531.80	4,438.70	6,590.03	9,784.04	14,526.12	21,566.56	32,019.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	441.50	709.40	855	4,300.80	1,871.80	2,848.69	4,229.38	6,279.25	9,322.64	13,841.09
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	394.60	643.80	802.90	4,248.80	1,724.40	2,689.77	3,993.43	5,928.95	8,802.56	13,068.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	46.90	65.60	52.10	52	147.40	158.92	235.94	350.30	520.08	772.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	877.10	915.80	1,136.20	2,617.30	1,380.70	2,917.34	4,331.30	6,430.58	9,547.32	14,174.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	576.50	348.30	361.60	518.40	681.30	1,169.75	1,736.70	2,578.44	3,828.14	5,683.55
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	442.20	354.90	286.30	379.70	369.20	896.50	1,331.01	1,976.11	2,933.89	4,355.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-31.30	-27.80	-61.20	-41.40	-40.60	-101.27	-150.35	-223.22	-331.41	-492.04
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 28.44
Beta	1.666
Diluted Shares Outstanding	365.71
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	22.10
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.90%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.557
Total Debt	-
Total Equity	10,400.73
Total Capital	10,400.73
Debt Weighting	0.00
Equity Weighting	100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,808.60	2,702.50	1,876.70	5,531.80	4,438.70	6,590.03	9,784.04	14,526.12	21,566.56	32,019.33
EBITDA	441.50	709.40	855	4,300.80	1,871.80	2,848.69	4,229.38	6,279.25	9,322.64	13,841.09
EBIT	394.60	643.80	802.90	4,248.80	1,724.40	2,689.77	3,993.43	5,928.95	8,802.56	13,068.94
Tax Rate	67.66%	69.12%	39.97%	26.14%	22.10%	45.00%	45.00%	45.00%	45.00%	45.00%
EBIAT	127.63	198.82	482.02	3,138.15	1,343.33	1,479.49	2,196.56	3,261.17	4,841.78	7,188.46
Depreciation	46.90	65.60	52.10	52	147.40	158.92	235.94	350.30	520.08	772.15
Accounts Receivable	-	228.20	-13.30	-156.80	-162.90	-488.45	-566.95	-841.74	-1,249.70	-1,855.40
Inventories	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Accounts Payable	-	-87.30	-68.60	93.40	-10.50	527.30	434.51	645.11	957.77	1,421.98
Capital Expenditure	-31.30	-27.80	-61.20	-41.40	-40.60	-101.27	-150.35	-223.22	-331.41	-492.04
UFCF	143.23	377.52	391.02	3,085.35	1,276.73	1,575.98	2,149.71	3,191.62	4,738.51	7,035.15
WACC
PV UFCF						1,412.68	1,727.28	2,298.72	3,059.20	4,071.28
SUM PV UFCF										12,569.16

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.56
Free cash flow (t + 1)	7,175.86
Terminal Value	75,061.25
Present Value of Terminal Value	43,438.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	56,007.50
Net Debt	-1,360.70
Equity Value	57,368.20
Shares Outstanding	365.71
Equity Value Per Share	156.87