Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Coherent, Inc. (COHR)
$269.58
+5.46 (+2.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,723.31 | 1,902.57 | 1,430.64 | 1,229 | 1,487.47 | 1,459.70 | 1,432.46 | 1,405.72 | 1,379.48 | 1,353.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | 439.14 | 500.78 | 148 | -332.82 | -23.32 | 97.80 | 95.97 | 94.18 | 92.43 | 90.70 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | 334.90 | 387.40 | 31.61 | -425.69 | -97.48 | 2.38 | 2.33 | 2.29 | 2.25 | 2.21 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 104.24 | 113.38 | 116.38 | 92.87 | 74.16 | 95.42 | 93.64 | 91.89 | 90.18 | 88.49 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Total Cash | 475.58 | 310.61 | 305.95 | 475.60 | 914.59 | 483.14 | 474.12 | 465.27 | 456.59 | 448.07 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 321 | 372.14 | 278.76 | 220.29 | 264.96 | 272.70 | 267.61 | 262.61 | 257.71 | 252.90 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | 414.81 | 486.74 | 442.53 | 426.76 | 392.24 | 413.62 | 405.90 | 398.32 | 390.89 | 383.59 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 75.86 | 70.29 | 51.53 | 60.22 | 104.54 | 68.98 | 67.69 | 66.43 | 65.19 | 63.97 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -63.77 | -90.76 | -83.28 | -64.92 | -82.56 | -73.35 | -71.98 | -70.64 | -69.32 | -68.03 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 269.58 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.313 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 24.39 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 7.61 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.18% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.938 |
| Total Debt | 524.93 |
| Total Equity | 6,575.06 |
| Total Capital | 7,099.98 |
| Debt Weighting | 7.39 |
| Equity Weighting | 92.61 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,723.31 | 1,902.57 | 1,430.64 | 1,229 | 1,487.47 | 1,459.70 | 1,432.46 | 1,405.72 | 1,379.48 | 1,353.73 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 439.14 | 500.78 | 148 | -332.82 | -23.32 | 97.80 | 95.97 | 94.18 | 92.43 | 90.70 |
| EBIT | 334.90 | 387.40 | 31.61 | -425.69 | -97.48 | 2.38 | 2.33 | 2.29 | 2.25 | 2.21 |
| Tax Rate | 31.43% | 31.58% | 10.36% | 6.46% | 7.61% | 17.49% | 17.49% | 17.49% | 17.49% | 17.49% |
| EBIAT | 229.64 | 265.04 | 28.34 | -398.20 | -90.07 | 1.96 | 1.93 | 1.89 | 1.85 | 1.82 |
| Depreciation | 104.24 | 113.38 | 116.38 | 92.87 | 74.16 | 95.42 | 93.64 | 91.89 | 90.18 | 88.49 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -51.14 | 93.38 | 58.47 | -44.67 | -7.74 | 5.09 | 5 | 4.90 | 4.81 |
| Inventories | - | -71.93 | 44.21 | 15.77 | 34.52 | -21.38 | 7.72 | 7.58 | 7.44 | 7.30 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -5.57 | -18.76 | 8.69 | 44.31 | -35.56 | -1.29 | -1.26 | -1.24 | -1.22 |
| Capital Expenditure | -63.77 | -90.76 | -83.28 | -64.92 | -82.56 | -73.35 | -71.98 | -70.64 | -69.32 | -68.03 |
| UFCF | 270.11 | 159.02 | 180.26 | -287.31 | -64.31 | -40.65 | 35.11 | 34.45 | 33.81 | 33.18 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -37.46 | 29.82 | 26.97 | 24.39 | 22.06 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 65.77 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.51 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 33.84 |
| Terminal Value | 519.86 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 345.57 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 411.34 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 68.39 |
| Equity Value | 342.95 |
| Shares Outstanding | 24.39 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 14.06 |