Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Coherent, Inc. (COHR)

$58.86

-1.61 (-2.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -307.33 | 58.86 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,362.502,380.073,105.893,316.625,160.107,321.5210,388.2814,739.6320,913.6429,673.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 243.6025.48412.49403.0650.42664.21942.421,337.171,897.282,691.99
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 151.23-195.40142.42116.28-631.27-18.34-26.02-36.93-52.39-74.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 92.36220.88270.07286.78681.69682.55968.451,374.101,949.672,766.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Total Cash 204.87493.051,591.892,582.37833.332,650.643,760.925,336.267,571.4610,742.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 269.64598.12658.96700.33929.801,541.502,187.203,103.354,403.256,247.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 296.28619.81695.83902.561,272.331,787.342,536.013,598.275,105.487,244.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 104.46268.77294.49434.92405.31723.501,026.551,456.542,066.652,932.30
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -137.12-140.63-146.34-314.33-436.06-565.40-802.23-1,138.26-1,615.05-2,291.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 58.86
Beta 1.646
Diluted Shares Outstanding 137.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 27.03
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.054
Total Debt 4,488.82
Total Equity 8,097.84
Total Capital 12,586.66
Debt Weighting 35.66
Equity Weighting 64.34
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Actual
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 1,362.502,380.073,105.893,316.625,160.107,321.5210,388.2814,739.6320,913.6429,673.75
EBITDA 243.6025.48412.49403.0650.42664.21942.421,337.171,897.282,691.99
EBIT 151.23-195.40142.42116.28-631.27-18.34-26.02-36.93-52.39-74.34
Tax Rate 16.53%-4.85%15.61%16.70%27.03%14.20%14.20%14.20%14.20%14.20%
EBIAT 126.23-204.88120.1996.87-460.65-15.74-22.33-31.68-44.95-63.78
Depreciation 92.36220.88270.07286.78681.69682.55968.451,374.101,949.672,766.33
Accounts Receivable --328.48-60.84-41.37-229.47-611.70-645.69-916.15-1,299.90-1,844.39
Inventories --323.53-76.02-206.73-369.77-515.01-748.67-1,062.26-1,507.21-2,138.54
Accounts Payable -164.3125.71140.43-29.61318.19303.05429.99610.10865.66
Capital Expenditure -137.12-140.63-146.34-314.33-436.06-565.40-802.23-1,138.26-1,615.05-2,291.54
UFCF 81.47-612.32132.78-38.35-843.88-707.11-947.42-1,344.26-1,907.33-2,706.26
WACC
PV UFCF -646.24-791.31-1,026.11-1,330.58-1,725.39
SUM PV UFCF -5,519.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.42
Free cash flow (t + 1) -2,814.51
Terminal Value -51,928.27
Present Value of Terminal Value -33,107.03

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -38,626.66
Net Debt 3,655.48
Equity Value -42,282.14
Shares Outstanding 137.58
Equity Value Per Share -307.33