Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Coherent, Inc. (COHR)

$38.955

+0.73 (+1.92%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -274.03 | 38.955 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	1,362.50	2,380.07	3,105.89	3,316.62	5,160.10	7,321.52	10,388.28	14,739.63	20,913.64	29,673.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	243.60	25.48	412.49	403.06	50.42	664.21	942.42	1,337.17	1,897.28	2,691.99
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	151.23	-195.40	142.42	116.28	-631.27	-18.34	-26.02	-36.93	-52.39	-74.34
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	92.36	220.88	270.07	286.78	681.69	682.55	968.45	1,374.10	1,949.67	2,766.33
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Total Cash	204.87	493.05	1,591.89	2,582.37	833.33	2,650.64	3,760.92	5,336.26	7,571.46	10,742.92
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	269.64	598.12	658.96	700.33	929.80	1,541.50	2,187.20	3,103.35	4,403.25	6,247.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	296.28	619.81	695.83	902.56	1,272.33	1,787.34	2,536.01	3,598.27	5,105.48	7,244.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	104.46	268.77	294.49	434.92	405.31	723.50	1,026.55	1,456.54	2,066.65	2,932.30
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-137.12	-140.63	-146.34	-314.33	-436.06	-565.40	-802.23	-1,138.26	-1,615.05	-2,291.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 38.955
Beta	1.576
Diluted Shares Outstanding	137.58
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	27.03
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.66%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.686
Total Debt	4,488.82
Total Equity	5,359.35
Total Capital	9,848.17
Debt Weighting	45.58
Equity Weighting	54.42
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	1,362.50	2,380.07	3,105.89	3,316.62	5,160.10	7,321.52	10,388.28	14,739.63	20,913.64	29,673.75
EBITDA	243.60	25.48	412.49	403.06	50.42	664.21	942.42	1,337.17	1,897.28	2,691.99
EBIT	151.23	-195.40	142.42	116.28	-631.27	-18.34	-26.02	-36.93	-52.39	-74.34
Tax Rate	16.53%	-4.85%	15.61%	16.70%	27.03%	14.20%	14.20%	14.20%	14.20%	14.20%
EBIAT	126.23	-204.88	120.19	96.87	-460.65	-15.74	-22.33	-31.68	-44.95	-63.78
Depreciation	92.36	220.88	270.07	286.78	681.69	682.55	968.45	1,374.10	1,949.67	2,766.33
Accounts Receivable	-	-328.48	-60.84	-41.37	-229.47	-611.70	-645.69	-916.15	-1,299.90	-1,844.39
Inventories	-	-323.53	-76.02	-206.73	-369.77	-515.01	-748.67	-1,062.26	-1,507.21	-2,138.54
Accounts Payable	-	164.31	25.71	140.43	-29.61	318.19	303.05	429.99	610.10	865.66
Capital Expenditure	-137.12	-140.63	-146.34	-314.33	-436.06	-565.40	-802.23	-1,138.26	-1,615.05	-2,291.54
UFCF	81.47	-612.32	132.78	-38.35	-843.88	-707.11	-947.42	-1,344.26	-1,907.33	-2,706.26
WACC
PV UFCF						-651.84	-805.09	-1,053.02	-1,377.30	-1,801.45
SUM PV UFCF										-5,688.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.48
Free cash flow (t + 1)	-2,760.39
Terminal Value	-42,598.56
Present Value of Terminal Value	-28,356.10

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	-34,044.79
Net Debt	3,655.48
Equity Value	-37,700.27
Shares Outstanding	137.58
Equity Value Per Share	-274.03