Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Coherent, Inc. (COHR)

$269.58

+5.46 (+2.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 14.06 | 269.58 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,723.311,902.571,430.641,2291,487.471,459.701,432.461,405.721,379.481,353.73
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 439.14500.78148-332.82-23.3297.8095.9794.1892.4390.70
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 334.90387.4031.61-425.69-97.482.382.332.292.252.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 104.24113.38116.3892.8774.1695.4293.6491.8990.1888.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 475.58310.61305.95475.60914.59483.14474.12465.27456.59448.07
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 321372.14278.76220.29264.96272.70267.61262.61257.71252.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 414.81486.74442.53426.76392.24413.62405.90398.32390.89383.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 75.8670.2951.5360.22104.5468.9867.6966.4365.1963.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -63.77-90.76-83.28-64.92-82.56-73.35-71.98-70.64-69.32-68.03
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 269.58
Beta 1.313
Diluted Shares Outstanding 24.39
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.61
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.18%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.938
Total Debt 524.93
Total Equity 6,575.06
Total Capital 7,099.98
Debt Weighting 7.39
Equity Weighting 92.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,723.311,902.571,430.641,2291,487.471,459.701,432.461,405.721,379.481,353.73
EBITDA 439.14500.78148-332.82-23.3297.8095.9794.1892.4390.70
EBIT 334.90387.4031.61-425.69-97.482.382.332.292.252.21
Tax Rate 31.43%31.58%10.36%6.46%7.61%17.49%17.49%17.49%17.49%17.49%
EBIAT 229.64265.0428.34-398.20-90.071.961.931.891.851.82
Depreciation 104.24113.38116.3892.8774.1695.4293.6491.8990.1888.49
Accounts Receivable --51.1493.3858.47-44.67-7.745.0954.904.81
Inventories --71.9344.2115.7734.52-21.387.727.587.447.30
Accounts Payable --5.57-18.768.6944.31-35.56-1.29-1.26-1.24-1.22
Capital Expenditure -63.77-90.76-83.28-64.92-82.56-73.35-71.98-70.64-69.32-68.03
UFCF 270.11159.02180.26-287.31-64.31-40.6535.1134.4533.8133.18
WACC
PV UFCF -37.4629.8226.9724.3922.06
SUM PV UFCF 65.77

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.51
Free cash flow (t + 1) 33.84
Terminal Value 519.86
Present Value of Terminal Value 345.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 411.34
Net Debt 68.39
Equity Value 342.95
Shares Outstanding 24.39
Equity Value Per Share 14.06