Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Coherent, Inc. (COHR)
$38.955
+0.73 (+1.92%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 1,362.50 | 2,380.07 | 3,105.89 | 3,316.62 | 5,160.10 | 7,321.52 | 10,388.28 | 14,739.63 | 20,913.64 | 29,673.75 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
EBITDA | 243.60 | 25.48 | 412.49 | 403.06 | 50.42 | 664.21 | 942.42 | 1,337.17 | 1,897.28 | 2,691.99 |
EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
EBIT | 151.23 | -195.40 | 142.42 | 116.28 | -631.27 | -18.34 | -26.02 | -36.93 | -52.39 | -74.34 |
EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
Depreciation | 92.36 | 220.88 | 270.07 | 286.78 | 681.69 | 682.55 | 968.45 | 1,374.10 | 1,949.67 | 2,766.33 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Total Cash | 204.87 | 493.05 | 1,591.89 | 2,582.37 | 833.33 | 2,650.64 | 3,760.92 | 5,336.26 | 7,571.46 | 10,742.92 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
Account Receivables | 269.64 | 598.12 | 658.96 | 700.33 | 929.80 | 1,541.50 | 2,187.20 | 3,103.35 | 4,403.25 | 6,247.64 |
Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
Inventories | 296.28 | 619.81 | 695.83 | 902.56 | 1,272.33 | 1,787.34 | 2,536.01 | 3,598.27 | 5,105.48 | 7,244.02 |
Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 104.46 | 268.77 | 294.49 | 434.92 | 405.31 | 723.50 | 1,026.55 | 1,456.54 | 2,066.65 | 2,932.30 |
Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -137.12 | -140.63 | -146.34 | -314.33 | -436.06 | -565.40 | -802.23 | -1,138.26 | -1,615.05 | -2,291.54 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 38.955 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.576 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 137.58 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 27.03 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.66% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.686 |
Total Debt | 4,488.82 |
Total Equity | 5,359.35 |
Total Capital | 9,848.17 |
Debt Weighting | 45.58 |
Equity Weighting | 54.42 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
Revenue | 1,362.50 | 2,380.07 | 3,105.89 | 3,316.62 | 5,160.10 | 7,321.52 | 10,388.28 | 14,739.63 | 20,913.64 | 29,673.75 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 243.60 | 25.48 | 412.49 | 403.06 | 50.42 | 664.21 | 942.42 | 1,337.17 | 1,897.28 | 2,691.99 |
EBIT | 151.23 | -195.40 | 142.42 | 116.28 | -631.27 | -18.34 | -26.02 | -36.93 | -52.39 | -74.34 |
Tax Rate | 16.53% | -4.85% | 15.61% | 16.70% | 27.03% | 14.20% | 14.20% | 14.20% | 14.20% | 14.20% |
EBIAT | 126.23 | -204.88 | 120.19 | 96.87 | -460.65 | -15.74 | -22.33 | -31.68 | -44.95 | -63.78 |
Depreciation | 92.36 | 220.88 | 270.07 | 286.78 | 681.69 | 682.55 | 968.45 | 1,374.10 | 1,949.67 | 2,766.33 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -328.48 | -60.84 | -41.37 | -229.47 | -611.70 | -645.69 | -916.15 | -1,299.90 | -1,844.39 |
Inventories | - | -323.53 | -76.02 | -206.73 | -369.77 | -515.01 | -748.67 | -1,062.26 | -1,507.21 | -2,138.54 |
Accounts Payable | - | 164.31 | 25.71 | 140.43 | -29.61 | 318.19 | 303.05 | 429.99 | 610.10 | 865.66 |
Capital Expenditure | -137.12 | -140.63 | -146.34 | -314.33 | -436.06 | -565.40 | -802.23 | -1,138.26 | -1,615.05 | -2,291.54 |
UFCF | 81.47 | -612.32 | 132.78 | -38.35 | -843.88 | -707.11 | -947.42 | -1,344.26 | -1,907.33 | -2,706.26 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV UFCF | -651.84 | -805.09 | -1,053.02 | -1,377.30 | -1,801.45 | |||||
SUM PV UFCF | -5,688.68 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.48 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | -2,760.39 |
Terminal Value | -42,598.56 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | -28,356.10 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | -34,044.79 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 3,655.48 |
Equity Value | -37,700.27 |
Shares Outstanding | 137.58 |
Equity Value Per Share | -274.03 |