Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ConocoPhillips (COP)

$120.53

-3.08 (-2.49%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 153.83 | 120.53 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 29,10636,41732,56718,78445,82859,140.8276,320.9698,491.85127,103.28164,026.19
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,62816,96916,6503,39321,09021,425.6727,649.7335,681.8546,047.2659,423.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -1,21711,01310,560-2,12813,8829,160.7111,821.8615,256.0519,687.8725,407.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,8455,9566,0905,5217,20812,264.9615,827.8720,425.7926,359.3934,016.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 10,0977,62510,2277,8566,59116,942.2221,863.8628,215.2136,411.6046,989.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,3204,0673,4012,7546,6707,767.4510,023.8612,935.7416,693.5121,542.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,0601,0071,0261,0021,2082,073.212,675.473,452.684,455.675,750.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 4,0303,8953,2002,6985,0257,060.899,112.0511,759.0615,175.0119,583.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,591-6,750-6,636-4,715-5,324-10,811.37-13,952.03-18,005.03-23,235.40-29,985.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 120.53
Beta 1.309
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,328.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 36.45
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.731
Total Debt 19,934
Total Equity 160,082.04
Total Capital 180,016.04
Debt Weighting 11.07
Equity Weighting 88.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 29,10636,41732,56718,78445,82859,140.8276,320.9698,491.85127,103.28164,026.19
EBITDA 5,62816,96916,6503,39321,09021,425.6727,649.7335,681.8546,047.2659,423.77
EBIT -1,21711,01310,560-2,12813,8829,160.7111,821.8615,256.0519,687.8725,407.10
Tax Rate 67.30%37.26%24.52%13.98%36.45%35.90%35.90%35.90%35.90%35.90%
EBIAT -397.916,909.497,971-1,830.498,822.585,871.867,577.619,778.8712,619.5916,285.52
Depreciation 6,8455,9566,0905,5217,20812,264.9615,827.8720,425.7926,359.3934,016.67
Accounts Receivable -253666647-3,916-1,097.45-2,256.41-2,911.88-3,757.77-4,849.39
Inventories -53-1924-206-865.21-602.26-777.21-1,002.99-1,294.35
Accounts Payable --135-695-5022,3272,035.892,051.162,647.013,415.954,408.27
Capital Expenditure -4,591-6,750-6,636-4,715-5,324-10,811.37-13,952.03-18,005.03-23,235.40-29,985.18
UFCF 1,856.096,286.497,377-855.498,911.587,398.688,645.9511,157.5514,398.7718,581.55
WACC
PV UFCF 6,784.677,270.458,603.8310,181.7612,049.07
SUM PV UFCF 44,889.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18,953.18
Terminal Value 268,839.43
Present Value of Terminal Value 174,326.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 219,216.76
Net Debt 14,906
Equity Value 204,310.76
Shares Outstanding 1,328.15
Equity Value Per Share 153.83