Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

ConocoPhillips (COP)

$120.53

-3.08 (-2.49%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 153.83 | 120.53 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	29,106	36,417	32,567	18,784	45,828	59,140.82	76,320.96	98,491.85	127,103.28	164,026.19
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	5,628	16,969	16,650	3,393	21,090	21,425.67	27,649.73	35,681.85	46,047.26	59,423.77
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	-1,217	11,013	10,560	-2,128	13,882	9,160.71	11,821.86	15,256.05	19,687.87	25,407.10
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	6,845	5,956	6,090	5,521	7,208	12,264.96	15,827.87	20,425.79	26,359.39	34,016.67
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Total Cash	10,097	7,625	10,227	7,856	6,591	16,942.22	21,863.86	28,215.21	36,411.60	46,989.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	4,320	4,067	3,401	2,754	6,670	7,767.45	10,023.86	12,935.74	16,693.51	21,542.90
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	1,060	1,007	1,026	1,002	1,208	2,073.21	2,675.47	3,452.68	4,455.67	5,750.02
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	4,030	3,895	3,200	2,698	5,025	7,060.89	9,112.05	11,759.06	15,175.01	19,583.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-4,591	-6,750	-6,636	-4,715	-5,324	-10,811.37	-13,952.03	-18,005.03	-23,235.40	-29,985.18
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 120.53
Beta	1.309
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,328.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	36.45
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.731
Total Debt	19,934
Total Equity	160,082.04
Total Capital	180,016.04
Debt Weighting	11.07
Equity Weighting	88.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	29,106	36,417	32,567	18,784	45,828	59,140.82	76,320.96	98,491.85	127,103.28	164,026.19
EBITDA	5,628	16,969	16,650	3,393	21,090	21,425.67	27,649.73	35,681.85	46,047.26	59,423.77
EBIT	-1,217	11,013	10,560	-2,128	13,882	9,160.71	11,821.86	15,256.05	19,687.87	25,407.10
Tax Rate	67.30%	37.26%	24.52%	13.98%	36.45%	35.90%	35.90%	35.90%	35.90%	35.90%
EBIAT	-397.91	6,909.49	7,971	-1,830.49	8,822.58	5,871.86	7,577.61	9,778.87	12,619.59	16,285.52
Depreciation	6,845	5,956	6,090	5,521	7,208	12,264.96	15,827.87	20,425.79	26,359.39	34,016.67
Accounts Receivable	-	253	666	647	-3,916	-1,097.45	-2,256.41	-2,911.88	-3,757.77	-4,849.39
Inventories	-	53	-19	24	-206	-865.21	-602.26	-777.21	-1,002.99	-1,294.35
Accounts Payable	-	-135	-695	-502	2,327	2,035.89	2,051.16	2,647.01	3,415.95	4,408.27
Capital Expenditure	-4,591	-6,750	-6,636	-4,715	-5,324	-10,811.37	-13,952.03	-18,005.03	-23,235.40	-29,985.18
UFCF	1,856.09	6,286.49	7,377	-855.49	8,911.58	7,398.68	8,645.95	11,157.55	14,398.77	18,581.55
WACC
PV UFCF						6,784.67	7,270.45	8,603.83	10,181.76	12,049.07
SUM PV UFCF										44,889.78

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.05
Free cash flow (t + 1)	18,953.18
Terminal Value	268,839.43
Present Value of Terminal Value	174,326.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	219,216.76
Net Debt	14,906
Equity Value	204,310.76
Shares Outstanding	1,328.15
Equity Value Per Share	153.83