Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO)

$18.95

-0.46 (-2.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -413.16 | 18.95 | overvalue

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 91.4186.6944.9456.3870.2769.7069.1468.5868.0367.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 52.4677.39148.2624.4655.7883.5582.8882.2181.5480.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 39.8061.26132.475.3935.2065.3364.8064.2863.7663.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 12.6616.1415.8019.0620.5818.2218.0817.9317.7817.64
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Total Cash 18.492.316.4734.8649.6523.6723.4823.2923.1022.91
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4.612.702.229.049.245.905.855.805.755.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.881.041.391.050.681.281.271.261.251.24
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -94.63-109.39-150.70-167.81-151.56-150.33-149.12-147.91-146.72-145.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 18.95
Beta 0.562
Diluted Shares Outstanding 17.68
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -11.46
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.531
Total Debt 278.47
Total Equity 334.98
Total Capital 613.45
Debt Weighting 45.39
Equity Weighting 54.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 91.4186.6944.9456.3870.2769.7069.1468.5868.0367.48
EBITDA 52.4677.39148.2624.4655.7883.5582.8882.2181.5480.88
EBIT 39.8061.26132.475.3935.2065.3364.8064.2863.7663.24
Tax Rate -31.26%30.03%-420.77%1,673.33%-11.46%247.97%247.97%247.97%247.97%247.97%
EBIAT 52.2442.86689.85-84.8739.24-96.67-95.89-95.11-94.35-93.58
Depreciation 12.6616.1415.8019.0620.5818.2218.0817.9317.7817.64
Accounts Receivable -1.910.48-6.82-0.203.340.050.050.050.05
Inventories ----------
Accounts Payable --0.840.35-0.34-0.370.60-0.01-0.01-0.01-0.01
Capital Expenditure -94.63-109.39-150.70-167.81-151.56-150.33-149.12-147.91-146.72-145.53
UFCF -29.72-49.33555.77-240.78-92.30-224.83-226.89-225.06-223.24-221.44
WACC
PV UFCF -214.27-206.07-194.80-184.15-174.08
SUM PV UFCF -973.38

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) -225.87
Terminal Value -7,708.71
Present Value of Terminal Value -6,060.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -7,033.53
Net Debt 269.86
Equity Value -7,303.39
Shares Outstanding 17.68
Equity Value Per Share -413.16