Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Chevron Corporation (CVX)

$157.91

+1.85 (+1.19%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 484.83 | 157.91 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	158,902	139,865	94,471	155,606	235,717	278,004.80	327,879.07	386,700.81	456,075.22	537,895.45
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	40,706	35,631	13,806	40,330	66,852	66,713.08	78,681.46	92,796.97	109,444.81	129,079.29
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	21,287	6,413	-5,702	22,405	50,533	26,567.40	31,333.61	36,954.88	43,584.61	51,403.73
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	19,419	29,218	19,508	17,925	16,319	40,145.68	47,347.85	55,842.09	65,860.20	77,675.57
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	10,345	5,749	5,627	5,675	17,901	15,467.26	18,242.09	21,514.74	25,374.50	29,926.70
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	15,050	13,325	11,471	18,419	20,456	28,721.12	33,873.70	39,950.67	47,117.85	55,570.83
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	5,704	5,848	5,676	6,305	8,247	11,859.46	13,987.05	16,496.34	19,455.79	22,946.18
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	13,953	14,103	10,950	16,454	18,955	27,283.72	32,178.45	37,951.28	44,759.77	52,789.70
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-13,792	-14,116	-8,922	-8,056	-11,974	-21,391.54	-25,229.19	-29,755.33	-35,093.46	-41,389.25
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 157.91
Beta	1.148
Diluted Shares Outstanding	1,870.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	28.60
After-tax Cost of Debt	1.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.930
Total Debt	23,339
Total Equity	295,295.96
Total Capital	318,634.96
Debt Weighting	7.32
Equity Weighting	92.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	158,902	139,865	94,471	155,606	235,717	278,004.80	327,879.07	386,700.81	456,075.22	537,895.45
EBITDA	40,706	35,631	13,806	40,330	66,852	66,713.08	78,681.46	92,796.97	109,444.81	129,079.29
EBIT	21,287	6,413	-5,702	22,405	50,533	26,567.40	31,333.61	36,954.88	43,584.61	51,403.73
Tax Rate	27.95%	47.18%	25.63%	27.79%	28.60%	31.43%	31.43%	31.43%	31.43%	31.43%
EBIAT	15,336.99	3,387.21	-4,240.73	16,178.11	36,078.29	18,216.86	21,484.98	25,339.40	29,885.30	35,246.75
Depreciation	19,419	29,218	19,508	17,925	16,319	40,145.68	47,347.85	55,842.09	65,860.20	77,675.57
Accounts Receivable	-	1,725	1,854	-6,948	-2,037	-8,265.12	-5,152.59	-6,076.97	-7,167.18	-8,452.98
Inventories	-	-144	172	-629	-1,942	-3,612.46	-2,127.60	-2,509.29	-2,959.46	-3,490.38
Accounts Payable	-	150	-3,153	5,504	2,501	8,328.72	4,894.72	5,772.84	6,808.49	8,029.94
Capital Expenditure	-13,792	-14,116	-8,922	-8,056	-11,974	-21,391.54	-25,229.19	-29,755.33	-35,093.46	-41,389.25
UFCF	20,963.99	20,220.21	5,218.27	23,974.11	38,945.29	33,422.16	41,218.17	48,612.74	57,333.90	67,619.64
WACC
PV UFCF						30,835.09	35,084.09	38,175.30	41,538.86	45,198.79
SUM PV UFCF										190,832.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.39
Free cash flow (t + 1)	68,972.03
Terminal Value	1,079,374.56
Present Value of Terminal Value	721,482.99

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	912,315.12
Net Debt	5,661
Equity Value	906,654.12
Shares Outstanding	1,870.03
Equity Value Per Share	484.83