Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Ford Motor Company (F)

$12.25

-0.11 (-0.89%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 232.40 | 12.25 | undervalue

Operating Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	160,338	155,900	127,144	136,341	158,057	158,826.81	159,600.37	160,377.69	161,158.80	161,943.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	23,344	18,282	16,275	23,338	18,894	21,650.55	21,756	21,861.96	21,968.44	22,075.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	15,036	9,792	8,818	17,378	12,401	13,718.18	13,784.99	13,852.13	13,919.60	13,987.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	8,308	8,490	7,457	5,960	6,493	7,932.37	7,971	8,009.83	8,048.84	8,088.04
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Total Cash	33,951	34,651	49,961	49,593	44,070	46,679.98	46,907.34	47,135.80	47,365.37	47,596.06
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	64,484	62,888	52,394	43,913	54,449	59,852.86	60,144.37	60,437.30	60,731.66	61,027.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	11,220	10,786	10,808	12,065	14,080	12,761.47	12,823.62	12,886.08	12,948.84	13,011.91
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	21,520	20,673	22,204	22,349	25,605	24,375.97	24,494.69	24,613.99	24,733.87	24,854.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-7,785	-7,632	-5,742	-6,227	-6,866	-7,362.63	-7,398.49	-7,434.53	-7,470.74	-7,507.12
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 12.25
Beta	1.627
Diluted Shares Outstanding	4,014
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	28.65
After-tax Cost of Debt	-0.33%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	12.149
Total Debt	140,474
Total Equity	49,171.50
Total Capital	189,645.50
Debt Weighting	74.07
Equity Weighting	25.93
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	160,338	155,900	127,144	136,341	158,057	158,826.81	159,600.37	160,377.69	161,158.80	161,943.72
EBITDA	23,344	18,282	16,275	23,338	18,894	21,650.55	21,756	21,861.96	21,968.44	22,075.43
EBIT	15,036	9,792	8,818	17,378	12,401	13,718.18	13,784.99	13,852.13	13,919.60	13,987.39
Tax Rate	15.37%	113.13%	-14.34%	-0.88%	28.65%	28.39%	28.39%	28.39%	28.39%	28.39%
EBIAT	12,724.37	-1,285.20	10,082.23	17,531.45	8,848.46	9,824.24	9,872.09	9,920.17	9,968.48	10,017.04
Depreciation	8,308	8,490	7,457	5,960	6,493	7,932.37	7,971	8,009.83	8,048.84	8,088.04
Accounts Receivable	-	1,596	10,494	8,481	-10,536	-5,403.86	-291.51	-292.93	-294.36	-295.79
Inventories	-	434	-22	-1,257	-2,015	1,318.53	-62.15	-62.46	-62.76	-63.07
Accounts Payable	-	-847	1,531	145	3,256	-1,229.03	118.72	119.30	119.88	120.47
Capital Expenditure	-7,785	-7,632	-5,742	-6,227	-6,866	-7,362.63	-7,398.49	-7,434.53	-7,470.74	-7,507.12
UFCF	13,247.37	755.80	23,800.23	24,633.45	-819.54	5,079.61	10,209.66	10,259.38	10,309.35	10,359.56
WACC
PV UFCF						4,935.98	9,640.42	9,413.44	9,191.81	8,975.39
SUM PV UFCF										42,157.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	2.91
Free cash flow (t + 1)	10,566.75
Terminal Value	1,161,181.66
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,006,033.12

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,048,190.16
Net Debt	115,340
Equity Value	932,850.16
Shares Outstanding	4,014
Equity Value Per Share	232.40